沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂5月检修产能或环增，国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加-20250523

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The easing of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US leads to expectations of rush exports, but the approaching traditional off - season and the increase in domestic electrolytic copper social inventory last week may cause the Shanghai copper price to remain weakly cautious. It is recommended that investors lightly test short positions on the main contract at high prices, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Content 3.1 Copper Market Data - On May 22, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 77,920, down 180 from the previous day; the trading volume was 61,455 lots, down 9,674; the open interest was 153,061 lots, down 10,259; the inventory was 31,754 tons, down 9,464; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,082, down 375 [2]. - The Shanghai copper basis was 165, down 195; the spot premium of Guangzhou electrolytic copper was 205, up 20; the spot discount of North China electrolytic copper was - 70, down 70; the spot premium of East China electrolytic copper was 30, down 125 [2]. - The price difference between the near - month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai copper was 320, up 30; the price difference between the first continuous and the second continuous contract was 250, down 10; the price difference between the second continuous and the third continuous contract was 220, up 40 [2]. - The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures was 9,519.5, up 32.5; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 01 (data seems abnormal), down 166,525; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 15.88, up 1.87; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 95.2, down 9.28; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.1853, down 0.05 [2]. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 4.678, unchanged; the total inventory was 174,607 tons, up 2,985 [2]. 3.2 Important Information - According to SMI, Mercuria Energy Trading Group expects a shortage of 300,000 tons of copper concentrate supply and a surplus of 800,000 tons of refined copper supply this year, which may drive up copper prices [2]. - According to the latest report of the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), in March 2025, the global refined copper production was 2513,500 tons, the consumption was 2493,000 tons, with a surplus of 20,600 tons. From January to March 2025, the global refined copper production was 7,283,200 tons, the consumption was 7,012,500 tons, with a surplus of 270,800 tons. In March 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 153,920 tons. From January to March 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 452,170 tons [2]. - In April 2025, China's copper strip exports were 10,741 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.87% and a year - on - year increase of 19.84%. From January to April 2025, China's cumulative copper strip exports were 39,166 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.86% [2]. - The US Congress and the White House reached an agreement on the budget resolution, including a $5.8 trillion investment in aviation over the next decade, a $5 trillion increase in the debt ceiling, and a $4 billion reduction in spending. The US April consumer inflation CPI annual rate was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value, which may lead the Fed to cut interest rates in September or December [2]. 3.3 Supply - side Information - The sulfide copper ore expansion project of Gedi.trepe polymetallic mine under ACC Metals in Shanghai is expected to be put into production in the first quarter of 2026, with an initial annual output of 25,000 tons. Freeport - McMoRan Indonesia was permitted to export 2.27 million tons of copper concentrate within 6 months from March 1 [3]. - Glencore's PASAR copper smelter in the Philippines with a refining capacity of 200,000 tons has stopped production. Glencore's Alto Norte smelter in Chile with a 350,000 - ton copper refining capacity has suspended production until May due to a problem with the converter furnace. The Kaaou Yalaua smelter in the Democratic Republic of the Congo may be put into production in June 2025, with an annual output of 500,000 tons [3]. - Yimen Copper Industry's new anode copper capacity increased from 100,000 tons to 150,000 tons and was successfully put into production on April 12. Jiangxi Copper Baoyuan's second - phase project with an annual output of 150,000 tons of cathode copper started construction in Guixi. Jinchuan Group's second - phase 800,000 - ton intelligent electrolytic copper project produced the first batch of high - purity cathodes in August [3]. - Freeport Indonesia's Manyar copper smelter with a 480,000 - ton capacity stopped production for 6 - month maintenance in mid - October 2024 due to a fire in the natural gas purification device. India's alaxti copper smelter may start production in mid - 2025. Japan's Toho Metal Mining plans to carry out a 6 - week maintenance on its Tovy Saelter & Refinery copper smelter in late October [3]. 3.4 Demand - side Information - High copper prices have affected new orders for copper rods. The operating rates of China's refined copper rods and recycled copper rods increased last week. The raw material inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises remained flat or decreased [3]. - The operating rate of China's copper wire and cable production decreased. The order volume and operating rate of copper liquid packaging increased. The operating rate of China's brass rods increased [3]. - Due to the easing of reciprocal tariffs and the approaching traditional off - season, the operating rates, production, imports, and exports of domestic steel enterprises in June may decline. Specifically, the operating rates of copper wire and cable, electrolytic copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper liquid packaging, copper strips, copper foils, steel pipes, and brass rods may decline [3]. 3.5 Inventory Information - The inventory of copper concentrate in Chinese ports may increase or decrease. The inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded area decreased last week, the social inventory increased, the inventory in the futures exchange decreased, and the inventory in COMEX increased [3].