集运日报：MSK多次小幅提高6月初即期运价，盘面低开高走，符合日报预期，已建议冲高止盈，等待回调机会-20250523

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - MSK slightly increased the spot rate at the beginning of June, and the futures market opened low and closed high, meeting the daily report's expectations. It is recommended to take profits when the price rises and wait for a callback opportunity [1]. - There are differences in the future freight rate trends and the implementation of price increases, resulting in intense long - short competition in the futures market. The slight increase in MSK's price at the beginning of June drove the market to rise slightly [3]. - The tariff has become a means of trade negotiation, adding significant uncertainties to future shipping trends. Although the easing of the Sino - US trade war may boost the digestion of US - bound shipping capacity, price wars among shipping alliances cannot be avoided [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Freight Rate Indexes - On May 12, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1265.30 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1446.36 points, down 0.6% from the previous period. On May 16, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1479.39 points, down 134.22 points from the previous period, with the European route price at 1154 USD/TEU, down 0.60%, and the US - West route at 3091 USD/FEU, up 31.70% [2]. - On May 16, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1014.55 points, up 6.53% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 750.91 points, down 0.78% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1813.08 points, up 23.18% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1104.88 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1430.35 points, down 1.0%; the CCFI for the US - West route was 876.92 points, up 2.2% [2]. 3.2 PMI Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in May was 49.4, the highest in 33 months; the preliminary value of the service PMI in April was 49.7 (expected 50.5). The preliminary value of the Eurozone's composite PMI in April was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in April was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [2]. - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in April was 50.7 (expected 49.1, final value in March 50.2); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, final value in March 54.4); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, final value in March 53.5) [3]. 3.3 Futures Market - On May 22, the main contract 2508 closed at 2206.0, down 0.95%, with a trading volume of 91,300 lots and an open interest of 51,600 lots, a decrease of 1405 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies in the short term, the operation is difficult. If participating in each contract, it is recommended to focus on the medium - to - long - term [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where the near - term freight rate is stronger than the long - term, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large. Currently, it is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the price of each contract rises, and then wait for the price to stabilize after a callback and continue to try to go long on the freight rate rebound [4]. 3.5 Other Information - The US is negotiating with Hamas through intermediaries in Doha to promote a cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel [5]. - The European Commission plans to levy a 2 - euro tax on small packages entering the EU, most of which come from China [5]. - Geopolitical conflicts, extreme weather, and sharp fluctuations in the external crude oil market are factors affecting the shipping market [6].