THDB(SH:600867) Orient Securities·2025-05-23 07:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 8.00 CNY based on a 25x PE valuation for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The impact of centralized procurement is gradually clearing, and the company's innovative pipeline is progressing smoothly [1]. - The company has adjusted its revenue and gross margin expectations downward due to the effects of centralized procurement, while overall expense ratios have been adjusted upward [2]. - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to the implementation of a new round of insulin centralized procurement and inventory control by commercial clients [10]. - Despite the challenges, overseas revenue showed strong growth, with a nearly 80% year-on-year increase in the first quarter of 2025 [10]. - The company is making progress in its research and development pipeline, with positive results from clinical trials for several products [10]. Financial Information Summary - Revenue Forecast: The company expects revenues of 2,708 million CNY in 2025, up from 2,010 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 34.7% [4]. - Net Profit Forecast: The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 630 million CNY, a significant recovery from a loss of 43 million CNY in 2024 [4]. - Earnings Per Share: The expected earnings per share for 2025 is 0.32 CNY, with projections of 0.40 CNY and 0.47 CNY for 2026 and 2027, respectively [4]. - Gross Margin: The gross margin is projected to decline slightly from 73.9% in 2024 to 71.8% in 2025 [4]. - Net Margin: The net margin is expected to recover to 23.3% in 2025 from a negative margin in 2024 [4].