TSP(SZ:300129) Changjiang Securities·2025-05-23 08:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 4.84 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.5%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to decline by 37.8% to 180 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit also decreasing by 29.1% to 180 million yuan [2][4]. Revenue Analysis - In 2024, the company's revenue from land towers is expected to be 4.026 billion yuan, an increase of 15.2% year-on-year. Steel tower shipments are projected to reach 480,000 tons, reflecting a growth of approximately 10%. The revenue from mixed towers is anticipated to surge to 440 million yuan, a significant increase of 822% year-on-year. Conversely, revenue from offshore wind equipment is expected to decline by 37.8% to 672 million yuan, with offshore shipments dropping by 37% to 80,000 tons due to slower domestic offshore wind project initiation [8]. Profitability Insights - The overall gross margin for the company in 2024 is projected to be 13.8%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points year-on-year. Both land and offshore wind gross margins are expected to decline, with overseas gross margins experiencing a more significant drop due to changes in customer structure [8]. Order Backlog - As of the end of 2024, the company has a total of approximately 4.917 billion yuan in executed and pending orders, which is a year-on-year increase of 28%. This includes 3.62 billion yuan from land towers (up 21%) and 1.27 billion yuan from offshore wind orders (up 61%). Domestic orders are around 3.72 billion yuan (up 48%), while foreign orders are 1.19 billion yuan (down 10%) [8]. Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the company is expected to benefit from a rapid increase in domestic wind power installations in 2025, which should lead to a significant rise in shipments and deliveries. The company is also actively expanding its overseas market presence, with production capacity in Yangzhou expected to contribute positively to its performance. The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is approximately 320 million yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of about 19 times [8].