2025年1-4月快递行业跟踪点评：件量保持高增，份额争夺暂时放松

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry has maintained high growth in package volume, with a year-on-year increase of 20.9% in the first four months of 2025, totaling 614.5 billion packages [2]. - The average revenue per package has continued to decline, with an average of 7.43 yuan per package in April, down 6.98% year-on-year [2]. - The competition among leading companies remains intense, with significant fluctuations in market share observed in April 2025 [4]. - The report suggests that while the industry is in a market expansion phase, price wars are unlikely to see a turning point soon, but the decline in prices may narrow as companies approach cost lines [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In the first four months of 2025, the express delivery business revenue reached 4669.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [2]. - The eastern region accounted for 74.0% of the revenue, while the central and western regions contributed 15.5% and 10.5%, respectively [3]. Competitive Landscape - In April 2025, major express companies such as SF Express, Yunda, Shentong, and YTO delivered 13.35 billion, 21.74 billion, 20.92 billion, and 26.93 billion packages, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.99%, 13.41%, 20.99%, and 25.26% [4]. - The market concentration index (CR8) for express and parcel services was 86.7, indicating a slight decrease in concentration compared to the previous month [4]. Investment Strategy - The report highlights that the express delivery volume is expected to maintain rapid growth due to various consumer stimulus policies and a recovery in consumer confidence [5]. - It recommends paying attention to companies like YTO Express (600233) and Shentong Express (002468) for potential investment opportunities [5].