棕榈油市场周报-20250523

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a strategy of short - selling on rallies due to the expected increase in supply. The palm oil market is expected to be weak with fluctuations as the supply continues to recover. The report also emphasizes the need to monitor production, inventory, and import - export demand in the producing regions [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - Strategy Advice: Short - sell on rallies due to supply increase [7]. - Market Review: This week, the main palm oil contract 2509 rose by 1.24%, closing at 7984 yuan/ton [8]. - Market Outlook: The producing areas are in the production - increasing season, with production data showing an upward trend and inventory expected to improve. From May 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.72% (SPPOMA data). Export demand is showing signs of recovery, with SGS reporting a 13.73% increase and ITS reporting a 5.25% increase. In China, import costs have slightly decreased, palm oil consumption remains at a basic level, and weekly trading volume has slightly increased. Overall, palm oil is expected to be weak with fluctuations [8]. 3.2. Futures Market - Price Movement: The main palm oil contract 2509 rose by 0.28% this week, closing at 8006 yuan/ton [11]. - Spread Change: As of May 23, the spread between September and January contracts of palm oil was 8 yuan/ton, widening compared to last week [19]. - Net Position and Warehouse Receipts: As of May 23, the net long position of the top 20 futures traders in palm oil was 7531 hands, an increase of 8002 hands from last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts was 330, unchanged from last week [25]. 3.3. Spot Market - Price Changes: As of May 23, the palm oil price in Guangdong remained unchanged at 8550 yuan/ton. The FOB price was 975 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from last week, and the CNF price was 1013 US dollars/ton, also a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [31]. - Basis Change: As of May 23, the basis between palm oil in Guangdong and the main contract was 496 yuan/ton, narrowing compared to last week [35]. 3.4. Industry Situation 3.4.1. Upstream - April Production and Export: In April 2025, Malaysian palm oil production was 1.686 million tons, a 21.52% increase from March. Exports were 1.1023 million tons, a 9.62% increase from March [41]. - April Inventory: Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of April was 1.8655 million tons, a 19.37% increase from March [45]. - May Export: From May 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 5.3% (ITS data) and 13.7% (SGS data) compared to the same period in April [51]. 3.4.2. Domestic - Inventory: As of May 23, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions in China was 359,700 tons, a 6.64% increase from last week and a 9.80% decrease from the same period last year [55]. - Import Profit: As of May 23, 2024, the price difference between the spot price of palm oil in Guangdong and the import cost from Malaysia was - 180.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.12 yuan/ton from last week [59]. 3.4.3. Substitutes - Inventory: As of May 16, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions in China was 656,300 tons, a 0.29% increase from last week and a 23.76% decrease from the same period last year. The rapeseed oil inventory was 792,500 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons from last week [62]. - Price: As of May 23, the price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week. The price of rapeseed oil in Fujian was 9390 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from last week [69]. - Price Spread: This week, the spot and futures price spreads among soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all narrowed [76]. 3.4.4. Downstream - Malaysia: In the 2024/25 period, the food and industrial consumption of palm oil in Malaysia increased compared to last year [82]. - Indonesia: In the 2024/25 period, the food and industrial consumption of palm oil in Indonesia increased compared to last year [89]. - China: In the 2024/25 period, the food consumption of palm oil in China increased, while the industrial consumption remained unchanged compared to last year [95]. 3.5. Options Market - Based on the palm oil price trend, it is recommended to wait and see for now as the market is fluctuating [100].