有色金属与钢铁行业双周报（2025、05、09-2025、05、22）：美债担忧上行，黄金市场多空博弈加剧-20250523

Investment Rating - The report maintains a standard rating for the non-ferrous metals and steel industry [2] Core Views - Concerns over US debt have increased, leading to intensified bullish and bearish dynamics in the gold market. The US national debt has reached the statutory limit of $36.1 trillion, and the recent easing of tariff expectations may exacerbate the debt risk, diminishing the credibility of the dollar. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1 due to rising debt and interest payment ratios [51][43] - The report suggests that the decline in dollar credibility is a structural factor driving gold prices upward, alongside increased demand from central banks and investors [51] - The refined copper production in China for April 2025 was 1.254 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, with a cumulative production of 4.781 million tons from January to April, up 5.6% year-on-year [52] - The aluminum processing sector has shown structural differentiation, with high demand in the new energy and home appliance sectors, while demand for aluminum profiles remains weak due to the construction sector [53] Market Performance - As of May 22, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has risen by 1.35% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.23 percentage points, ranking 12th among 31 industries. Year-to-date, the industry has increased by 10.85%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 11.39 percentage points, ranking 3rd [12] - The steel industry has decreased by 1.74% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.33 percentage points, ranking 24th. Year-to-date, the steel industry has increased by 2.28%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.82 percentage points, ranking 13th [12] Subsector Analysis - In the non-ferrous metals sector, the industrial metals segment rose by 2.57% in the last two weeks, while the energy metals segment increased by 0.74%. The precious metals segment saw a rise of 0.67%, and the small metals segment increased by 0.13%. However, the new materials segment fell by 2.62% [16] - Year-to-date performance shows the industrial metals segment up by 10.41%, energy metals up by 1.64%, precious metals up by 34.25%, and small metals up by 7.59% [16] Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining (601899), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988), and Shandong Gold (600547) due to their strong performance and growth potential [52][56]