Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-23 09:38Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For corn, the USDA's supply - demand report forecasts a large ending inventory for the US 2025/26 corn season, and the easing of Sino - US trade relations raises concerns about long - term import pressure. In the domestic market, although mid - month purchases in Northeast China support the spot market, increased auction supplies and farmers' selling enthusiasm due to weak futures prices, along with factors in the North China and Huanghuai regions, have led to a slowdown in the decline of corn futures prices after continuous drops [8]. - For corn starch, high raw material costs, large industry losses, and competition from substitutes have led to a decline in the industry's operating rate. The spot price is relatively firm due to reduced supply pressure, but high inventory levels remain as downstream demand is mainly for essential needs [12]. Group 3: Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Corn: The weekly closing price of the main 2507 contract was 2327 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous week. The USDA report and trade relations affect prices. In the domestic market, purchases support the spot market, but increased supplies and market factors have an impact. The decline of the futures price has slowed recently [8]. - Corn Starch: The weekly closing price of the main 2507 contract was 2663 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton from the previous week. High costs, losses, and competition lead to a lower operating rate. The spot price is firm, but inventory remains high [12]. - Strategy Suggestion: Short - term trading is recommended for both corn and corn starch [7][11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position Changes: The corn futures July contract fluctuated slightly downward, with a total position of 1308920 lots, a decrease of 44758 lots from the previous week. The corn starch futures July contract closed down, with a total position of 240074 lots, an increase of 24666 lots from the previous week [18]. - Top 20 Net Position Changes: The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 105335, a decrease in net short positions compared to the previous week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 3268, with little change in net short positions [25]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 211835, and those of corn starch were 25640 [31]. - Spot Price and Basis: As of May 16, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2374.9 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active July contract and the spot average was 48 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2820 yuan/ton and 2890 yuan/ton in Shandong, relatively stable this week. The basis between the July contract and the Jilin Changchun spot was 157 yuan/ton [36][40]. - Futures Inter - monthly Spread: The 7 - 9 spread of corn was - 24 yuan/ton, and that of starch was - 74 yuan/ton, both at medium levels for the same period [46]. - Futures Spread: The spread between the July contract of starch and corn was 336 yuan/ton. As of Thursday, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week [55]. - Substitute Spread: As of May 22, 2025, the wheat - corn spread was 90.21 yuan/ton. In the 21st week of 2025, the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch widened, with an average spread of 206 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan/ton from the previous week [60]. 3. Industry Chain Situation Corn - Supply Side: As of May 16, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 130.4 million tons, a decrease of 13.5 million tons from the previous week, and the foreign trade inventory was 0.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.7 million tons. The total inventory of the four northern ports was 382.1 million tons, a decrease of 39.5 million tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 62 million tons, an increase of 8.3 million tons week - on - week. In April 2025, the import volume of ordinary corn was 180,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from the same period last year. As of May 22, the average inventory of feed enterprises was 35.2 days, the same as the previous week, and an increase of 15.22% year - on - year [50][68][72]. - Demand Side: As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 417.31 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%, and the breeding sow inventory was 40.39 million, a decrease of 270,000 from the previous month. As of May 16, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 80.66 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets was 48.2 yuan/head. As of May 22, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 105 yuan/ton, and the corn alcohol processing profit was - 856 yuan/ton in Henan, - 619 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 94 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [76][80][84]. Corn Starch - Supply Side: As of May 21, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 453.5 million tons, an increase of 0.15%. From May 15 to May 21, 2025, the total corn processing volume was 58.39 million tons, a decrease of 0.44 million tons from the previous week; the corn starch output was 28.91 million tons, a decrease of 0.67 million tons from the previous week; the operating rate was 55.88%, a decrease of 1.3% from the previous week. As of May 21, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was 142.9 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons from the previous week, a weekly increase of 0.56%, a monthly increase of 3.03%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.40% [88][92]. 4. Option Market Analysis - As of May 23, the implied volatility of the corn main 2507 contract was 9.59%, a decrease of 0.72% from the previous week. The implied volatility fluctuated downward this week, at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [95].