FULING POWER(600452) 民生证券·2025-05-23 09:33Investment Rating - The report gives a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a comprehensive energy service provider, leveraging its electricity sales business as a foundation while focusing on the critical transformation of its energy-saving business [3][11]. - The electricity consumption demand is steadily increasing, with a significant rise in electricity sales volume contributing to performance growth [2][46]. - The company is actively expanding its distribution network energy-saving business, which is expected to benefit from the growth of the State Grid's comprehensive energy services [3][54]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Business Overview - The company primarily engages in electricity supply and sales, power dispatch, and energy-saving services, with a well-established supply network mainly in the Fuling District of Chongqing [11][12]. - The energy-saving business has expanded to cover 20 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions across China [11]. 2. Financial Analysis - From 2020 to 2024, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders are projected to grow at CAGRs of 4.09% and 6.46%, respectively [17]. - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 3.117 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.46% year-on-year, and a net profit of 514 million yuan, down 2.07% year-on-year [17]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 709 million yuan, a decline of 4.09% year-on-year, with net profit dropping 16.29% to 90 million yuan [17]. 3. Electricity Sales and Energy-Saving Business - The total electricity sales volume in 2024 reached 346,384 million kWh, an increase of 7.71% year-on-year, with a stable average selling price of 643.65 yuan per MWh [2][38]. - The direct sales volume accounted for 94.94% of total sales, reflecting a growth of 8.05% year-on-year, while the bulk sales volume decreased by 5.68% [2][38]. - The energy-saving business is crucial for the company's transformation, with new contracts expected to drive additional revenue [48][54]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 524 million, 555 million, and 603 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.9%, 5.8%, and 8.8%, respectively [3][67]. - The estimated PE ratios for 2025-2027 are 28x, 27x, and 25x, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to peers [3][71].