瑞达期货宏观市场周报「2025.5.23」-20250523

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices fluctuated this week, with all but the Small - and - Medium 100 recording slight declines. The four stock index futures showed differentiation, with large - cap blue - chip stocks outperforming small - and - medium - cap stocks. The release of weaker domestic economic data in April put pressure on the market, and although the LPR cut briefly restored market sentiment, the lack of further catalysts led to a market correction. Market trading activity decreased slightly compared to last week. For stocks, the configuration suggestion is to be cautious and wait and see [6]. - In the bond market, the long - term bond bull market may still be expected, but in the short term, due to the phased results of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the exhaustion of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cut benefits, the market's risk - aversion sentiment decreased significantly, and the bond market fluctuated weakly. The configuration suggestion is also to be cautious and wait and see [6]. - The commodity market may experience a correction after the release of the positive effects brought by the repair of trade relations. The configuration suggestion is to short at high prices [6]. - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly due to factors such as the rise in fiscal pressure and the damage to the credit of US dollar assets. The euro fluctuated due to factors such as the pressure of tariff negotiations and the expectation of interest rate cuts. The yen showed a slightly stronger and fluctuating pattern. The configuration suggestion for foreign exchange is to be cautious and wait and see [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Configuration Suggestions Stocks - Performance: A - share major indices fluctuated, with all but the Small - and - Medium 100 recording slight declines. The four stock index futures showed differentiation, with large - cap blue - chip stocks outperforming small - and - medium - cap stocks. The market was pressured by weaker economic data in April, briefly recovered with the LPR cut, and then corrected due to the lack of catalysts. Market trading activity decreased slightly [6]. - Configuration Suggestion: Be cautious and wait and see [6]. Bonds - Performance: In the long - term, the bond bull market may still be expected, but in the short term, the bond market fluctuated weakly due to factors such as the phased results of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the exhaustion of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cut benefits [6]. - Configuration Suggestion: Be cautious and wait and see [6]. Commodities - Performance: After the release of the positive effects brought by the repair of trade relations, the commodity market may experience a correction [6]. - Configuration Suggestion: Short at high prices [6]. Foreign Exchange - Performance: The US dollar index fluctuated weakly due to factors such as the rise in fiscal pressure and the damage to the credit of US dollar assets. The euro fluctuated due to factors such as the pressure of tariff negotiations and the expectation of interest rate cuts. The yen showed a slightly stronger and fluctuating pattern [6]. - Configuration Suggestion: Be cautious and wait and see [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - China - related: The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's tightening restrictions on Chinese chips, emphasizing that the US measures are discriminatory and that relevant parties may be held legally responsible. China and ASEAN completed the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 version, adding 9 new chapters. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support the real economy. The "15th Five - Year Plan" compilation work launched an online opinion - solicitation activity [15]. - International: Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating to AA1. Trump will set new tariff rates for trading partners in the next two to three weeks. Fed officials hinted that it may be difficult to cut interest rates before September. ECB officials said that a June interest rate cut cannot be ruled out [17]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - China: In April, the year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods was 5.1% (expected 5.5%, previous value 5.9%); the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 6.1% (expected 5.5%, previous value 7.7%); the year - to - date year - on - year growth rate of urban fixed - asset investment was 4% (expected 4.2%, previous value 4.2%); the one - year LPR as of May 20 was 3% (expected 3%, previous value 3.1%) [18]. - US: As of the week ending May 17, the number of initial jobless claims was 227,000 (expected 230,000, previous value 229,000); the preliminary value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in May was 52.3 (expected 50.1, previous value 50.2) [18]. - EU: The final value of the CPI annual rate in April was 2.2% (expected 2.2%, previous value 2.2%); the preliminary value of the consumer confidence index in May was - 15.2 (expected - 16, previous value - 16.7); the preliminary value of the Manufacturing PMI in May was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous value 49) [18]. - UK: The annual rate of the core retail price index in April was 4.2% (previous value 2.8); the annual rate of the retail price index in April was 4.5% (expected 4.2, previous value 3.2); the annual rate of the core CPI in April was 3.8% (expected 3.6, previous value 3.4); the preliminary value of the Manufacturing PMI in May was 45.1 (expected 46, previous value 45.4) [18]. - Germany: The monthly rate of PPI in April was - 0.6% (expected - 0.3%, previous value - 0.7); the preliminary value of the Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.8 (expected 48.9, previous value 48.4) [18]. - France: The preliminary value of the Manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5 (expected 48.9, previous value 48.7) [18]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - May 27: At 14:45, the final value of France's May CPI monthly rate (previous value 0.6); at 21:00, the annual rate of the unadjusted house price index of 20 major cities in the US in March (previous value 4.5) [88]. - May 28: At 14:45, the final value of France's Q1 GDP annual rate; at 15:55, Germany's seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate in May (previous value 6.3) [88]. - May 29: At 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 24; the revised value of the annualized quarterly rate of the US Q1 real GDP [88]. - May 30: At 07:30, Japan's April unemployment rate (previous value 2.5); at 20:00, the preliminary value of Germany's May CPI monthly rate (previous value 0.4); at 20:30, the annual rate of the US April core PCE price index (previous value 2.6); at 21:45, the US May Chicago PMI (previous value 44.6); at 22:00, the final value of the US May University of Michigan consumer confidence index (previous value 52.2) [88].