利率债周报：震荡中等待增量信息-20250523

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report After the temporary easing of trade relations, the "rush to export" effect and the increase in risk appetite put some pressure on the bond market. However, the continuous improvement of domestic demand still takes time, which limits the upward range of bond market yields. With limited incremental information recently, it is expected that bond market yields will fluctuate following the movement of capital prices [28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Event Reviews - Economic Data: In April, economic indicators in production, investment, and consumption showed marginal declines. Export - related industries were affected by tariffs, while high - tech and equipment manufacturing maintained high growth. In the future, "rush to export" may mainly involve inventory reduction, and tariff uncertainties still affect production and investment willingness. The expansion of domestic demand policies can boost consumption, but more employment and income - stabilizing policies are needed. These factors limit the upper limit of bond market yield fluctuations [9]. - Fiscal Data: In April, the marginal improvement of broad - based fiscal revenue was observed, and fiscal expenditure continued to increase. Public fiscal revenue improved, with the cumulative year - on - year decline of corporate income tax narrowing for the second consecutive month. Public fiscal expenditure focused on people's livelihood, while government - funded expenditure may be more inclined to "two important" and "two new" areas [10][11]. 3.2 Capital Price: DR007 First Rose and Then Fell During the statistical period, the central bank net - injected nearly 700 billion yuan. DR007 first rose due to the disturbance of treasury bond supply and then fell back. However, the inter - bank certificate of deposit yield increased again, mainly because the reduction of deposit interest rates led to deposit transfer, and banks faced greater pressure on liability outflows [12]. 3.3 Primary Market: The Issuance Scale of New Special Bonds Increased Marginally From May 16th to May 22nd, 109 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with an actual issuance total of 897 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 633.9 billion yuan. The supply of treasury bonds was large, and the issuance of new special bonds increased marginally. The overall supply scale in May was controllable, but the disturbance of interest - rate bond supply still needed attention [19]. 3.4 Secondary Market: Interest Rates Showed Differentiated Performance During May 16th - May 22nd, the yields of treasury bonds with different maturities varied. The 10 - year treasury bond yield rose 4bp to 1.72%. After the reduction of LPR quotes and deposit interest rates, there was a profit - taking sentiment in the bond market. Subsequently, with limited incremental information, the bond market showed a wait - and - see attitude, and the trading volumes of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds decreased [20]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Fundamentals: From May to July, the "rush to export" effect may become more obvious, mainly through inventory reduction, which has limited impact on domestic inflation. Domestic demand improvement takes time, and trade frictions may recur. Therefore, the upper limit of the long - term interest rate fluctuation range will not be too high [26][28]. - Policy: After the positive progress in Sino - US talks, the expectation of large - scale incremental policies has cooled. In terms of monetary policy, some banks have reduced deposit interest rates, which eases the pressure on bank spreads and suggests the possibility of further interest rate cuts (policy rates and LPR quotes) around August - September. The resumption of the central bank's open - market treasury bond trading operations is worthy of attention [28]. - Capital: When there is a lack of incremental information in the market, the impact of capital price fluctuations is crucial, especially at the end of the month when the supply pressure of interest - rate bonds is large [28].