热点追踪周报：由创新高个股看市场投资热点（第195期）-20250523

• The report introduces a quantitative model named "250-Day New High Distance" to track market trends and identify leading stocks. The model calculates the distance of the latest closing price from the highest closing price in the past 250 trading days using the formula: $ 250\text{-Day New High Distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Closet}}{\text{ts_max(Close, 250)}} $ where "Closet" represents the latest closing price, and "ts_max(Close, 250)" represents the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the degree of fallback [11][12][13] - The model is evaluated positively as it aligns with momentum and trend-following strategies, which have been proven effective in previous studies. It also references methodologies from notable investors like William O'Neil and Mark Minervini, emphasizing the importance of tracking stocks that consistently hit new highs [11][18] - The report provides backtesting results for major indices using the "250-Day New High Distance" model. As of May 23, 2025, the distances for key indices are: - Shanghai Composite Index: 4.05% - Shenzhen Component Index: 11.85% - CSI 300: 8.78% - CSI 500: 10.70% - CSI 1000: 9.41% - CSI 2000: 7.40% - ChiNext Index: 20.73% - STAR 50 Index: 12.98% [12][13][31] - Another quantitative factor introduced is "Stable New High Stocks," which focuses on stocks with smooth price paths and sustained momentum. The factor is constructed using criteria such as analyst attention, relative price strength, price path smoothness, and trend continuation. Specific metrics include: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months - Relative price strength: Top 20% in market-wide 250-day returns - Price path smoothness: Evaluated using metrics like cumulative absolute returns over 120 days - Trend continuation: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days and past 5 days [24][26][27] - The factor is positively evaluated for its focus on smooth momentum and its ability to identify stocks with strong and consistent performance. It references studies on the "boiling frog effect" and smooth price paths, which suggest that stocks with less extreme price movements tend to outperform [24][26] - Backtesting results for the "Stable New High Stocks" factor show that 41 stocks were selected based on the criteria. These stocks are distributed across sectors, with the manufacturing and consumer sectors having the highest representation (11 stocks each). Notable stocks include Wanchen Group, Sansheng Guojian, and Yanjin Shop [27][30][32]