涪陵电力：以售电业务为基，节能业务成转型关键-20250523

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a comprehensive energy service provider, leveraging its electricity sales business as a foundation while focusing on energy-saving initiatives in the distribution network as a key to transformation [3][11]. - The electricity consumption demand is steadily increasing, with a significant rise in electricity sales volume contributing to performance growth [2][46]. - The company is backed by the State Grid Corporation, actively expanding its energy-saving business in the distribution network, which is expected to benefit from the growth of comprehensive energy services [3][54]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview and Business Model - The company primarily engages in electricity supply and sales, power dispatch, and energy-saving services, with a well-established supply network mainly in the Fuling District of Chongqing [11][12]. - The energy-saving business includes energy efficiency management systems and key equipment upgrades, currently covering 20 provinces and regions nationwide [11]. 2. Financial Performance - From 2020 to 2024, the company's revenue and net profit CAGR are projected at 4.09% and 6.46%, respectively [17]. - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.117 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.46%, and a net profit of 514 million yuan, down 2.07% [17][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 709 million yuan, down 4.09%, and a net profit of 90 million yuan, down 16.29% [17]. 3. Electricity Sales and Energy-Saving Business - The total electricity sales volume in 2024 reached 346,384 million kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.71%, with a stable average selling price [2][38]. - The direct sales volume accounted for 94.94% of total sales, reflecting a growing competitive advantage in the end-user electricity market [38][46]. - The energy-saving business is crucial for the company's transformation, with a focus on reducing losses and improving efficiency in the distribution network [48][54]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 524 million, 555 million, and 603 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.9%, 5.8%, and 8.8%, respectively [3][5]. - The estimated PE ratios for 2025 to 2027 are 28x, 27x, and 25x, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to peers [3][71].