Xinda Securities·2025-05-23 10:23Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The express delivery industry experienced a business volume growth of 19.1% year-on-year in April, with SF Express leading at 30.0% growth [3][4] - The cumulative express delivery volume from January to April reached 614.5 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.9% [15] - The average price per package in the express delivery sector continued to face pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 7.0% in April [4][5] - The report highlights the ongoing growth potential in the express delivery sector, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce [6][50] Summary by Sections Industry Situation - The cumulative retail sales of physical goods through online shopping reached 3.93 trillion yuan, growing by 5.8% year-on-year, with an online shopping penetration rate of approximately 24.3% [15][16] - The average value per package was about 63.9 yuan, down 13.1% year-on-year [15] Company Performance - In April, the express delivery volumes for major companies were as follows: YTO Express at 2.693 billion pieces, Yunda at 2.174 billion pieces, Shentong at 2.092 billion pieces, and SF Express at 1.335 billion pieces [4][35] - Cumulatively, from January to April, the express delivery volumes were: YTO Express at 9.472 billion pieces, Yunda at 8.250 billion pieces, Shentong at 7.899 billion pieces, and SF Express at 4.876 billion pieces [4][35] Pricing Situation - The average price per package in the express delivery industry was 7.43 yuan in April, down 7.0% year-on-year [4][5] - The average prices for major companies in April were: YTO Express at 2.14 yuan, Yunda at 1.91 yuan, Shentong at 1.97 yuan, and SF Express at 13.49 yuan [5][41] Core Summary and Outlook - The report emphasizes the continued growth potential in the express delivery sector, with e-commerce package volumes expanding and consumer behavior becoming more fragmented [6][50] - The competitive landscape is expected to evolve, with potential price competition re-emerging in 2025 as leading companies seek to increase their market shares [8][50] Investment Recommendations - For franchise-based companies, the report recommends focusing on Zhongtong Express, Yunda, and YTO Express, while keeping an eye on Shentong Express [51] - For direct-operated companies, SF Express is recommended due to its position as a leading comprehensive express logistics provider, with expectations of improved profitability and cash flow [51]