全国碳市场行情简报（2025年第81期）-20250523

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: National Carbon Market Weekly Brief (Issue 81, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release date: May 23, 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The recent average daily trading volume is low, and the trend of bottom - grinding through fluctuations is difficult to change in the short term [5] - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [7] Group 4: Market Conditions CEA - CEA22 has a significant decline, while other quotas are weakly stable. The volume of listed transactions is 15.64 tons, and the volume of bulk transactions is 42.00 tons [6] - CEA19 - 20 has a closing price of 69.50 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.14%, CEA21 has a closing price of 68.50 yuan/ton with no change, CEA22 has a closing price of 67.80 yuan/ton with a decline of 3.14%, CEA23 has a closing price of 70.53 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.10%, and CEA24 has a closing price of 70.73 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.18% [11] - The total trading volume of CEA19 - 20 is 0.20 tons, CEA21 is 0.00 tons, CEA22 is 1.50 tons, CEA23 is 11.07 tons, and CEA24 is 44.87 tons [11] - The total turnover of CEA19 - 20 is 3176.98 million yuan, CEA21 is 101.70 million yuan, CEA22 is 13.97 million yuan, CEA23 is 897.26 million yuan, and CEA24 is 0.00 million yuan [12] CCER - The volume of listed agreement transactions is 3.50 tons, and the average transaction price is 90.00 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.82%. The turnover is 315.36 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 179.41 tons [6][13] Group 5: Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August. In 2025, the remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quota can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [7] Group 6: Core Logic - After the CEA price drops to around 70 yuan, both the rigid demand and speculative demand in the market appear, the market trading enthusiasm significantly increases, and the release of the mandatory circulation quota accelerates. The bottom of the CEA comprehensive price in May may be 65 - 68 yuan/ton [9] - Currently, the release ratio of the mandatory circulation quota is less than 20%, and there is still potential selling pressure. The market price is bottom - grinding through fluctuations and still lacks upward driving force. If the selling time of surplus enterprises is postponed, the price bottom may be lower and the rebound height may be more limited. If the daily trading volume can significantly increase, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [9]