Niu(US:NIU) Guoxin Securities·2025-05-23 11:22Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6][4][36] Core Views - The company has experienced a significant revenue decline due to rising lithium prices and increased competition, with revenue dropping to 2.652 billion yuan in 2023. However, it is expected to recover with a projected revenue of 3.288 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 24% year-on-year growth [9][5][4] - The company is actively adjusting its product and channel strategies, launching high-end lead-acid electric two-wheelers to enhance competitiveness and improve sales. The introduction of new models is anticipated to drive sales growth and improve product structure [3][25][31] - The company has shown a narrowing of losses, with a net loss of 0.39 billion yuan expected in Q1 2025, down from 2.72 billion yuan in 2023, indicating a trend towards profitability [10][4][19] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 2.652 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.288 billion yuan in 2024, and further to 4.932 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 50% from 2024 to 2025 [5][4] - The net profit is expected to turn positive by 2025, with forecasts of 138 million yuan, 270 million yuan, and 408 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5][36] - The company’s gross margin is projected to decline to 17.3% in Q1 2025, primarily due to tariffs, while the net margin is expected to improve to -5.7% [2][19][4] Product and Channel Strategy - The company has launched new high-end lead-acid electric two-wheelers, NT/MT Play, which have received positive market reception, with sales exceeding 5,900 units within hours of launch [31][25][3] - The company is expanding its distribution channels, increasing the number of retail stores from 3,735 in 2024 to 4,119 in Q1 2025, focusing on both first-tier and second/third-tier cities [34][3][25] - The strategic shift towards lead-acid products is expected to fill gaps in the product lineup and enhance market penetration [28][3][25]