预览6月2日- 6月6日

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Attractive [3] Core Insights - Ferguson is rated Overweight with a price target of $195 and GBp 15,000 [7][10] - The expected organic growth for Ferguson is +1% with an operating margin of 8.3%, in line with consensus [6][8] - For FY25, Ferguson anticipates low single-digit growth in net sales and adjusted operating margin guidance of 8.3-8.8% [9] Summary by Sections Earnings and Events Calendar - Ferguson's 3Q25 results are due on June 3, 2025, with Ashtead's FY25 results following on June 17, 2025 [1] Company Performance Expectations - Ferguson's volume growth is expected to be approximately +3%, offset by a pricing headwind of about -2% due to commodity deflation [8] - The consensus for Ferguson's FY25 group revenues is $30,242 million, implying a +2.0% growth compared to FY24 [9] Valuation and Market Position - Ferguson's shares are trading at a CY25e P/E of approximately 20x, which is slightly above the coverage average but justified by a higher-quality mix [10] - The valuation methodology includes a DCF approach with an 8.0% WACC and a 2% terminal growth rate [12]