国投期货化工日报-20250523

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★☆★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆★ [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market for various chemicals shows different trends. Some are facing downward pressure due to factors such as weak demand, ample supply, and falling costs, while others are expected to have a certain degree of price support or fluctuate within a certain range [2][3][4] - The overall chemical market is affected by multiple factors including supply and demand, cost, and seasonal factors, and different products have different performance characteristics and future expectations [2][3][4] Summary by Chemical Products Methanol - The methanol futures price has been falling. Coal prices are at the bottom, reducing cost support. High domestic supply and increased imports lead to a weak fundamental situation, with expected inventory build - up [2] Urea - The urea futures price dropped. Industrial and agricultural demand shows different trends. Although daily production is high, it is in the domestic demand peak season. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Polyolefins - The polyolefin futures price declined. The market has inventory pressure, cost support is weakening, and the terminal demand is weak [4] Styrene - The styrene futures price decreased. Cost support is insufficient, and supply is expected to increase slightly in late May and early June [6] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated. PX follows oil prices, PTA is affected by raw materials, and there are plans for large - scale maintenance in June. Ethylene glycol's profit has improved, but there is pressure on near - month contracts after June. Short - fiber processing margins are slowly recovering, and bottle - chip is in the peak season with low processing margins [7] Chlor - Alkali - PVC is running weakly. Domestic demand is flat, exports may decline, and supply is under pressure. Caustic soda prices have fallen from high levels. Although inventory has decreased, demand has not improved significantly, and prices are expected to be under pressure [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices are under pressure again due to weak supply - demand and falling costs. Inventory is high, and prices are expected to follow cost fluctuations. Soda ash prices are falling. Supply is expected to increase after maintenance, and demand is weakening, so prices will continue to be under pressure [9]