农产品日报-20250523

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean One: No clear rating [1] - Bean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bean Oil: No clear rating [1] - Palm Oil: No clear rating [1] - Rapeseed Meal: No clear rating [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆★ [1] - Corn: No clear rating [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆★ [1] - Eggs: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The soybean market is affected by factors such as policy, weather, and supply. The rapeseed market lacks trend - driving factors but has a bullish strategy. The corn market will fluctuate. The live pig market is under supply pressure, and the egg market is bearish in the long - term [2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Related Contents Soybeans - Domestic soybean futures fluctuate repeatedly, with local reserve soybean auctions resulting in no sales. The policy - driven trading volume is small. Imported soybeans face the pressure of large - scale arrivals from May to July, and weather will be a key factor in both domestic and overseas markets [2] - The drought - affected area of US soybeans has shrunk, with about 16% of the planting area affected as of May 20, compared to 17% the previous week and 6% last year. The domestic spot market has stabilized, and the supply has become more abundant. The competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans has increased, and there are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade [3] Bean Meal - The Dalian bean meal main contract continued to close higher. The domestic spot market has stabilized, and the supply has become more abundant since May. There are many uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and the market lacks a continuous upward - driving force [3] Bean Oil and Palm Oil - The US House of Representatives has passed the 45Z amendment bill, which may increase the demand for domestic raw materials in North America, increase US soybean crushing, and reduce US soybean exports. Palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle overseas and faces the pressure of increased arrivals in China from May to June. The prices of bean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related futures contracts mainly fluctuated with small daily price changes. The sowing of Canadian rapeseed is advancing, and as of May 19, 58% of the rapeseed in Saskatchewan has been sown. The supply of oilseeds in China is expected to be abundant in the second quarter, and the strategy is still bullish [5] Corn - Corn futures rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom this week. The spot price of corn in Northeast China continued to decline slightly, and the supply in Shandong decreased. After the transfer of grain ownership, the market - circulating grain is still in the trading link. Starch enterprises have had long - term losses, with a recent decline in operating rates and a slight recovery in profits. The market will fluctuate in the next stage [6] Live Pigs - Live pig futures continued to hit new lows, and the spot price was under pressure due to the accelerated slaughter rate. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of live pigs will recover, and the spot price is expected to decline, which may put downward pressure on the futures price [7] Eggs - The spot price of eggs across the country generally declined, and the near - month June contract continued to hit new lows. In the short - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the price can stop falling and stabilize during the Dragon Boat Festival stocking period. In the medium - term, the industry's production capacity is expected to increase until the end of September. In the long - term, the egg price is bearish [8]