重卡行业4月跟踪月报：内销同比转正，看好内销景气度持续上行

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [67]. Core Viewpoints - April sales data for heavy trucks met expectations, with wholesale, terminal, and export volumes aligning with forecasts [5][8][20]. - The report anticipates a continued upward trend in domestic sales, projecting approximately 60,000 units in May 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12% [5][6]. - The heavy truck market is experiencing a recovery, with significant growth in new energy vehicles, which saw sales of 16,000 units in April, a year-on-year increase of 243% [8][32]. Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - April wholesale volume reached 88,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 6.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 21.4% [5][20]. - Terminal sales for April were 69,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.3% [5][20]. - Export sales in April totaled 26,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 7.2% [5][20]. - The total industry inventory decreased by 6,700 units in April, with the current total inventory at 150,000 units, indicating a reasonable inventory level [5][21]. Market Structure - In April, the market share for terminal sales among major manufacturers was as follows: Jiefang 19.2%, Dongfeng 22.5%, Heavy Truck 17.3%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 11.5%, and Foton 12.2% [7][42]. - For exports, the market shares were: Jiefang 14.4%, Dongfeng 8.7%, Heavy Truck 46.8%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 14.4%, and Foton 11.0% [7][44]. - The report highlights a significant increase in Foton's market share in both terminal and export segments compared to the previous year [7][44]. Engine Market - In April, the market share for engines was led by Weichai at 20.2%, followed by Cummins at 17.6% and Xichai at 13.5% [9][52]. - Weichai's terminal配套量 was 14,000 units, showing a year-on-year decrease of 38.5% [9][57]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group A/H and Weichai Power, emphasizing the performance potential of FAW Jiefang and Foton Motors due to expected earnings improvements [9][62].