债市晴雨表：债市情绪走弱

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint Last week, the sentiment in the bond market weakened. The bond market sentiment index, diffusion index, and some other indicators showed declines, while certain turnover rates and configuration forces also changed [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Market Sentiment - The bond market sentiment index last week was 113.3, down 0.9 from the previous value; the bond market sentiment diffusion index was 42.4%, down 10.5 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 2. Institutional Duration - The fund duration on the last Friday was 2.17 years, unchanged from the previous Friday; the rural commercial bank duration was 2.84 years, up 0.02 years from the previous Friday; the insurance duration was 6.74 years, down 0.03 years from the previous Friday [1]. 3. Leverage Ratio - The balance of pledged repurchase last week was 10.6 trillion yuan, down 0.4 trillion yuan from the previous value; the net lending balance of large - scale banks was 3.1 trillion yuan, down 0.7 trillion yuan from the previous value; the bond market leverage ratio was 103.4%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous value [1]. 4. Secondary Trading - In terms of turnover rate last week, the 30Y Treasury bond turnover rate was 1.9%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value; the 10Y Treasury bond turnover rate was 1.0%, unchanged from the previous value; the 10Y China Development Bank bond turnover rate was 29.3%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous value; the ultra - long - term credit bond turnover rate was 0.47%, up 0.07 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 5. Allocation Power - The newly issued share of bond funds last week was 6.3 billion yuan, down 12.9 billion yuan from the previous value; the stock market risk premium was 1.36%, down 0.03 percentage points from the previous value; the US dollar index was 99.8, down 1.3 from the previous value [2]. 6. First - level Subscription - The full - field multiple of Treasury bonds last week dropped 0.2 times to 3.0 times; the full - field multiple of local bonds dropped 2.1 times to 21.0 times; the full - field multiple of China Development Bank bonds rose 0.1 times to 3.1 times [3]. 7. Relative Valuation - Last week, the spread between 10 - year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds narrowed 3.3bp to - 0.2bp; the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds narrowed 3.5bp to 17.1bp; the spread between old and new 10 - year China Development Bank bonds narrowed 0.3bp to 3.2bp; the spread between 10 - year local bonds and Treasury bonds narrowed 3.4bp to 15.1bp [3].