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流动性跟踪:银行负债端仍有压力
HUAXI Securities·2025-05-24 15:05

Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The central bank increased liquidity support, with a net injection of CNY 4,600 billion through reverse repos from May 19-23, alongside CNY 2,400 billion in treasury cash deposits and CNY 3,750 billion in MLF operations[1] - The average daily lending scale in the banking system decreased to CNY 30,000 billion from CNY 37,000 billion the previous week, indicating pressure on the liability side of banks[2] - The 1-year Shibor rate fell to a year-to-date low of 1.67% but showed limited downward momentum thereafter, fluctuating between 1.67%-1.68%[2] Market Trends - The overnight rates decreased from 1.6% to a range of 1.4%-1.5% during the week, but increased marginally on May 23 due to special treasury bond issuance and tax payments[1] - The weighted issuance rate of interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.67%, up 2 basis points from the previous week, after two weeks of decline[6] - The net issuance of government bonds decreased to CNY 3,531 billion for the period of May 26-30, down from CNY 4,380 billion the previous week[5] Interbank Market Activity - The central bank's reverse repos maturing from May 26-30 amount to CNY 9,460 billion, indicating significant liquidity management ahead of the month-end[3] - Major banks net sold CNY 169 billion in bills from May 19-22, with cumulative net purchases of CNY 2,418 billion for May[4] - The weighted average maturity of interbank certificates of deposit increased to 6.2 months, reflecting a shift in issuance strategy among banks[6] Risk Factors - Potential liquidity changes may arise from unexpected economic data or adjustments in monetary policy, which could impact market stability[5]