美豆产区或东涝，西旱政策扰动仍未散去

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Protein Meal - South American soybeans' impact on the market is gradually weakening. Brazilian soybeans mainly affect the market through the trend of Brazilian basis. In June, the high - temperature weather in the US continues, with excessive rainfall in the east and significantly lower - than - normal rainfall in the western part of the Midwest, which may damage soybean growth. CBOT soybeans will fluctuate between 950 - 1150 before variables change and may rise if variables occur. In June, domestic imported soybeans will arrive at ports intensively, oil mills will operate at a high level, and soybean meal inventory accumulation may accelerate, causing spot and basis prices to decline. Dalian soybean meal may follow the trend of US soybeans [1][124]. Oils - In June, there is a high possibility that US soybean oil will oscillate and decline from a high level due to the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy. Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in May, and there is a high risk of a market decline in June. Domestic oils have an obvious oversupply situation in June, with soybean oil inventory accumulating faster, and palm oil and rapeseed oil inventories remaining stable. Domestic oil demand is weak, and the market may follow international oils. Lianpalmoil may continue to oscillate weakly, Zheng rapeseed oil may be supported by policies and oscillate strongly, and the soybean - palm oil spread is expected to continue to widen [2][125][126]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Market Review - In May, CBOT soybeans oscillated and closed higher. At the beginning of May, they showed a low - level oscillation trend. Later, positive factors such as the improvement of US soybean export prospects, the tightening of new - year supply, and the increase in US biodiesel blending ratio pushed up the price. Domestic soybean meal was significantly weaker than the external market. International oils showed differentiated trends, with US soybean oil reaching a high and then falling, and Malaysian palm oil oscillating downwards. Domestic oils followed international oils but did not break out of the previous oscillation range [4][5]. Part Two: Protein Meal - Global Soybean Production Forecast: USDA's May report shows that the global soybean production is expected to increase for the fourth consecutive year in the 25/26 season, with heavy supply pressure from South America. The supply pressure is most significant during the concentrated listing period of South American soybeans from May to June [9]. - South American Soybean Situation: Argentina was affected by rainfall during the harvest period, which may reduce production. Brazilian soybean production is a foregone conclusion, and its impact on the market is mainly reflected in the Brazilian basis. The decline of Brazilian basis may slow down in June and may stop falling and stabilize [10][15][19]. - US Soybean Situation: In the 25/26 season, US soybean supply is tight, with low tolerance for yield reduction. The planting progress in 2025 is ahead of schedule, but the weather may be characterized by "flood in the east and drought in the west", which may damage soybean growth. US soybean exports and crushing demand in the 25/26 season have great uncertainties. Before variables change, CBOT soybeans will oscillate between 950 - 1150 and may rise if variables occur [26][29][40]. - Domestic Protein Meal Situation: In June, domestic imported soybeans will arrive at ports intensively, oil mills will operate at a high level, and soybean meal inventory accumulation may accelerate, causing spot and basis prices to decline. Dalian soybean meal may follow the trend of US soybeans [64]. Part Three: Oils - US Soybean Oil: USDA estimates that the production and demand of US soybean oil will increase in the 25/26 season, but the market sentiment has changed from optimism to pessimism due to the uncertainty of the biodiesel policy. In June, US soybean oil may oscillate and decline from a high level [66][69][74]. - Malaysian Palm Oil: Since March, Malaysian palm oil production has been increasing. In May, production may exceed demand, leading to inventory accumulation. In June, production may slightly decline, and exports may increase. The market has a high risk of decline and needs export demand and biodiesel policies to boost [75][79][84]. - Canadian Rapeseed: USDA estimates that the global rapeseed production will increase by 5% in the 25/26 season, and the supply will be better than that in the 24/25 season. Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase by nearly 4%, but the inventory is still at a low level, with limited tolerance for yield reduction [90][93]. - Domestic Oils: In June, domestic oils have an obvious oversupply situation, with soybean oil inventory accumulating faster, and palm oil and rapeseed oil inventories remaining stable. Domestic oil demand is weak, and the market may follow international oils. Lianpalmoil may continue to oscillate weakly, Zheng rapeseed oil may be supported by policies and oscillate strongly, and the soybean - palm oil spread is expected to continue to widen [123]. Part Four: Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - Protein Meal: South American soybeans' impact on the market is weakening. In June, US weather may affect soybean growth, and there are uncertainties in US soybean exports and crushing demand. CBOT soybeans will oscillate in a range and may rise if variables occur. Domestic soybean meal inventory may accumulate faster, and spot and basis prices may decline. Dalian soybean meal may follow US soybeans [124]. - Oils: US soybean oil may oscillate and decline from a high level in June. Malaysian palm oil has a high risk of decline. Domestic oils have an oversupply situation, with soybean oil inventory accumulating faster, and palm oil and rapeseed oil inventories remaining stable. Lianpalmoil may oscillate weakly, Zheng rapeseed oil may oscillate strongly, and the soybean - palm oil spread is expected to widen [125][126]. - Operations: For soybean meal, adopt low - level buying or selling put options. For palm oil, short at the upper limit of the range or sell call options. In arbitrage, go long on the soybean - palm oil spread and short on the oil - meal ratio [127][128][129].