国信期货玉米月报：后期供应趋紧，震荡偏多对待-20250525

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish bias in a volatile market for corn investment [1][27][28] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Globally, the sown area of corn in major producing countries has increased compared to the previous year, with a particularly notable increase in US production. If the projected yields are realized, the global corn market will remain relatively宽松. Domestically, the supply of corn is tight, but factors such as the low price difference between wheat and corn, old rice auctions, and expectations of relaxed imports will cap the upside potential of corn prices. Overall, the later supply of the corn market is tightening, and there is strong support at the lower end [1][27][28] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Since May, domestic corn spot prices have trended slightly higher in a volatile manner, while futures prices have declined. The basis has strengthened significantly, and the main futures contract C2507 has shifted from a premium to parity with the spot price. The firmness of prices at northern ports is due to the increasing willingness of grain - holding entities to hold prices. The approach of the new wheat harvest, the low price difference between wheat and corn, and the adjustment of feed formulas by some enterprises have led to doubts about the continued tightness of the corn market. The withdrawal of long - position funds is the key reason for the futures decline [3] 3.2 International Corn Market Analysis 3.2.1 Significantly Increased Planting Area of New - Season Corn in the US - The USDA's May supply - demand report estimates that the planting area of US corn in 2025/26 will be 95.3 million acres, with a yield of 181 bushels per acre, a total output of 15.82 billion bushels, feed demand of 5.9 billion bushels, food and processing demand of 6.885 billion bushels, exports of 2.675 billion bushels, and an ending inventory of 1.8 billion bushels. Due to the low price and poor planting profits of soybeans in 2024/25, and the uncertainty of Sino - US relations, US farmers are more inclined to plant corn, resulting in a significant increase in the sown area compared to the previous year [5] 3.2.2 Steady to Slight Increase in Future Output Expected in Brazil and Argentina - According to the USDA's May estimate, Brazil's corn output in 2024/25 is 130 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous month's forecast and a 9% increase from the previous year's actual output. The increase is mainly due to a 3% increase in yield, thanks to sufficient rainfall in April. The output in 2025/26 is expected to be 131 million tons, consumption is expected to be 93 million tons, exports will be 43 million tons, and the ending inventory will be 2.58 million tons. In Argentina, the output in 25/26 is estimated to be 53 million tons, exports will be 37 million tons, and the ending inventory will be 2.788 million tons. Currently, the new - season output in South America is expected to increase slightly, but the forecast has limited reference value as the new - season planting is still far off [8] 3.2.3 Restorative Increase in New - Season Output Expected in Ukraine - According to the USDA's estimate, Ukraine's corn output in 25/26 is expected to reach 30.5 million tons, a 13.8% increase from 26.8 million tons in the previous year. The increase is mainly due to a slight increase in area and yield recovery. The ending inventory will be 600,000 tons, recovering from the previous year [10] 3.3 Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.3.1 Slight Increase in New - Season Area and Stable to Slight Increase in Production - According to the estimate of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the planting area of Chinese corn in 2025/26 will be 44,873 thousand hectares (673 million mu), a 0.3% increase from the previous year. The yield per hectare is expected to be 6,600 kg (440 kg per mu), a stable to slight increase from the previous year. The total output will be 296.16 million tons, a 0.4% increase. Overall, domestic corn production in 25/26 is expected to increase slightly. In terms of weather, the overall precipitation in the Northeast is relatively high, which has affected the sowing progress, and the spring sowing is expected to be about one week later than last year [13] 3.3.2 Reduced Impact of Imported Corn and Energy Raw Materials on the Domestic Corn Market - China's corn imports have remained at a "very low" level for several consecutive months. In the 24/25 market year, the cumulative corn imports were 1.33 million tons, a significant decrease from 19.66 million tons in the same period of the previous year. There is little import from the US for 9 consecutive months, and imports from Brazil have also significantly decreased. This is due to both the narrowing import profit and policy - controlled import volume. According to this import pace, the annual corn imports in 24/25 will be reduced by more than 10 million tons compared to the previous year. The imported energy raw materials, including sorghum, barley, wheat, and broken rice, are just over 10 million tons, about half of that in the same period of the previous year. The significant reduction in imported corn and grains will significantly reduce the supply shock in the domestic market and leave more market space for domestic corn [15] 3.3.3 Recovery and Expansion of the Breeding Scale and Increase in Feed Output Compared to the Previous Year - According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the inventory of breeding sows in China began to rise in the second quarter of 2024, reached a peak in the fourth quarter, and then declined. In 2025, the pig inventory will generally show an increasing trend, but the expansion slope of this cycle is relatively gentle compared to previous cycles. In the poultry industry, laying hens have been profitable for 4 consecutive years, and the production scale is entering an expansion cycle, while the production of meat poultry is relatively stable. Overall, the feed consumption of poultry is expected to increase. For ruminant feed, the cattle - raising industry suffered heavy losses last year, and the consumption of ruminant feed is expected to remain at a low level this year. In general, the production and sales of feed this year are expected to increase compared to the previous year. In April 2025, the national industrial feed output was 27.53 million tons, a 4.2% increase from the previous month and a 9.0% increase from the same period of the previous year, with a significant year - on - year increase for 4 consecutive months [17] 3.3.4 Weak Downstream Consumption and Sluggish Deep - Processing Demand - In the deep - processing industry, due to weak macro - economic growth and general downstream demand, the profit of deep - processing is poor. In the future, the Sino - US tariff confrontation and the severe foreign trade situation will continue to put pressure on the product sales of deep - processing enterprises, meaning that there is limited room for significant improvement in the profit of deep - processing enterprises, which may limit corn consumption. From 24/25 to date, the corn consumption of sample enterprises is roughly the same as the previous year, and the corn consumption of corn alcohol enterprises has decreased significantly, reflecting the weak growth of deep - processing demand. It is expected that the deep - processing demand for corn in 24/25 will be the same as or slightly less than the previous year [20] 3.3.5 Increased Substitution of Wheat for Corn, but Large - Scale Substitution is Not Expected - Since April, as the corn price has risen, the price difference between wheat and corn has significantly decreased. After May, the price difference rebounded slightly, but wheat still shows a strong cost - performance advantage over corn. Currently, the substitution of wheat for corn mainly occurs in major wheat - producing areas such as Henan and Shandong, and has not spread to Jiangsu, Anhui, and Guangdong. Whether it will expand further remains to be observed. As the domestic wheat harvest progresses, the output, quality, and price of new - season wheat have become the focus of the market, which also has a significant impact on the future trend of the corn market. This year, many wheat - producing areas have experienced drought, but the scope of yield reduction in major wheat - producing areas in North China is limited. However, whether the dry - hot wind will cause further yield reduction needs further tracking. In late May, heavy rain in most parts of Henan may lead to a sudden change from drought to flood, and there is a possibility of sprouted wheat during the harvest period. In terms of policy, the State Food and Strategic Reserves Administration has taken active measures to keep grain prices at a reasonable level. Considering the early layout of summer grain purchases by the government this year and the fact that the rotation prices in some areas are higher than the minimum purchase price, it is expected that the domestic wheat price will not drop significantly. Therefore, it is initially expected that the large - scale substitution of wheat for corn is unlikely [25]