KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-25 04:25Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a steady recovery in social consumption, with April 2025 retail sales showing a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, and a cumulative increase of 4.7% from January to April 2025. The expectation is for this recovery trend to continue throughout 2025 [4][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes, particularly in high-growth sectors such as gold jewelry and cosmetics, driven by consumer insights and product differentiation [4][39] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail index for the week of May 19-23, 2025, closed at 2110.59 points, down 1.61%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.04 percentage points [6][15] - The jewelry sector showed the highest growth this week, with a weekly increase of 7.56% and a year-to-date increase of 18.83% [17][20] Social Consumption Trends - The total retail sales for April 2025 reached 37,174 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.1% year-on-year growth, slightly below the consensus expectation of 5.5% [25][28] - Online retail sales for the first four months of 2025 amounted to 47,419 billion yuan, growing by 7.7%, with physical goods online retail accounting for 24.3% of total retail sales [28][29] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors driven by emotional consumption themes: - Gold Jewelry: Recommend brands with differentiated product offerings and deep consumer insights, such as Laopuhuangjin, Chaohongji, and Zhou Dasheng [7][41] - Cosmetics: Highlight domestic brands with strong growth potential, including Proya, Shangmei, and Juzi Biological [39][41] - Retail: Suggest retail companies that are actively transforming and exploring new opportunities, such as Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [7][39] - Medical Aesthetics: Recommend companies with differentiated product lines, such as Aimeike and Kedi-B [39][41]