甲醇半年报：供应增加逐步兑现，甲醇偏弱震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The supply of methanol is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price of methanol lacks upward momentum due to the weak supply - demand situation and the narrowing theoretical operating range caused by the weak raw coal market [4][64]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In May, the main contract 2509 of methanol futures first rose and then fell, showing a weak and volatile trend. The futures price at the end of the month was around 2,250 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of about 1%. The spot prices in Taicang and Inner Mongolia also decreased by 5% and 5.6% respectively compared to the end of last month [6]. - The basis of methanol in ports and inland areas weakened significantly. The port basis was around 60 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the inland basis decreased by about 140 yuan/ton. The price difference between production and sales areas slightly expanded, but the arbitrage window remained closed [9]. - In May, the global methanol market mostly showed a weak trend. The CFR prices in China's main ports, Southeast Asia, Europe, and the US all declined, with decreases of 3.4%, 2.4%, 8.3%, and 6.1% respectively [14]. 2. Methanol Supply - Demand Analysis 2.1 High Supply in Production Areas and Potential Accumulation of Inland Inventory - In May, the domestic methanol device operating rate remained at a high level. The overall domestic methanol device operating load was 74.51%, 5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and the operating load in the northwest region was 80.90%, nearly 5.44 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The domestic methanol output in May was about 7.24 million tons, a significant increase of 11% from the previous month [2][17]. - The inventory in inland areas has been low due to the external procurement of several methanol - to - olefin devices. However, as the inland production continues to increase, the inventory is expected to gradually accumulate, and the sales pressure will also increase, leading to a decrease in prices and a narrowing of corporate profits [19]. 2.2 Inventory Accumulation at Ports Has Reached a Turning Point - Iranian methanol devices restarted in mid - to - late March, increasing the quantity shipped to China. In April, China's methanol imports increased significantly, reaching 787,800 tons, a 66.54% increase from the previous month. In May, Iranian supplies continued to increase, but the import profit decreased as the Chinese spot price dropped. It is estimated that China's methanol imports in May were around 1.1 million tons [29]. - As of the end of May, the coastal methanol inventory was 639,500 tons, an increase of about 60,000 tons from the end of last month, a 10% month - on - month increase and a 19.49% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the import volume of coastal ports from the end of May to early June will be 790,000 tons, and the port inventory may gradually accumulate [30]. 2.3 Industrial Chain Situation - International Natural Gas and Import Profit: In May, international natural gas prices first decreased and then increased, and the international methanol production cost was around 1,780 yuan/ton, with a slight fluctuation in import cost [37]. - Coal - to - Methanol Profit: The domestic thermal coal market remained weak. As of the end of May, the price of Ordos Q5500 was around 420 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost of northwest coal - to - methanol was around 1,680 yuan/ton. Although the profit of coal - to - methanol slightly decreased, it was still at a high level in recent years, and domestic supply may remain high [39]. - MTO Device and Traditional Downstream: By the end of May, the weighted operating rate of methanol downstream was about 75%, an increase of about 2.8 percentage points from the end of last month. The average operating load of methanol - to - olefin devices was 81.51%, an increase of over 4 percentage points from the previous month. Traditional downstream industries are entering the off - season, and the demand for methanol may decrease. However, the traditional downstream capacity is expanding, and if all planned new capacities are put into production, it will increase the demand for methanol by about 6.5 million tons [43][44].