股指期货周报：成交缩量影响，股指震荡走弱-20250525

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the impact of shrinking trading volume, the stock index fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to have long positions in 182506 and IP2506, and also allocate more to IM2506 because of its relatively high annualized basis rate [5]. - The joint statement between China and the US, domestic economic data improvement, policy support, capital market reforms, and "national team" actions are important factors supporting the market [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - Domestic indices continued to fluctuate weakly this week, while US stocks fell significantly. By May 23, 2025, the NASDAQ fell 2.47%, the S&P 500 fell 2.61%, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.65%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.57%, the CSI 1000 fell 1.23%, the SSE 50 fell 0.18%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.88%, and the STAR 50 fell 1.47%. The performance of Shenwan's primary 31 industry indices was divergent, with sectors such as medicine, biology, non - ferrous metals, and automobiles rising, and sectors such as computers, machinery, and electronics falling [13][14]. Liquidity - In April, the growth rate of social financing increased significantly, and the growth rate of M2 rebounded. The net MLF investment in April was 50 billion yuan. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds was around 1.65%. The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7% year - on - year, a 0.3% increase from the previous month. More than 80% of the 1.16 trillion yuan increase in social financing came from new government bond financing. The M2 growth rate rebounded significantly, the M1 growth rate declined month - on - month, and the M1 - M2 gap widened to - 6.5%, indicating insufficient economic vitality [24]. Trading Data and Sentiment - The trading volume of the two markets continued to decline to around one trillion yuan. The number of new stock account openings in January was 1.57 million, in February was 2.83 million, in March was 3.06 million, and in April it dropped to 1.92 million [27][37]. Index Valuation - As of May 23, 2025, the latest PE of the Shanghai Composite Index was 14.48, with a percentile of 62.56, and the latest PE of the All - A Index was 18.95, with a percentile of 59.90. Among the major stock indices, the valuation percentile ranking was CSI 500 < CSI 1000 < SSE 300 < SSE 50 [53]. Index Industry Weights (as of December 31, 2024) - In the SSE 50, the weights of banks, food and beverage, and non - bank finance were relatively high, at 19.4%, 16.57%, and 13.07% respectively, and the electronics sector became the fourth - largest weighted industry. - The weights of the SSE 300 were relatively dispersed, with the top three weighted industries being banks, non - bank finance, and electronics. - The top three weighted industries of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were exactly the same, namely electronics, medicine and biology, and power equipment, but the electronics industry in the CSI 1000 had a higher weight [54].