海外周报20250525：流动性与财政可持续性担忧推动10年期美债利率上破4.5%

Market Overview - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.51% due to concerns over liquidity and fiscal sustainability, marking an increase of 3.4 basis points for the week[1] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices fell by 2.61% and 2.47% respectively, reflecting market turmoil[1] - The U.S. dollar index dropped by 1.96% to 99.1, indicating a weakening dollar[1] Economic Indicators - Analysts have revised the U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 Q2 to 2.4%, up from previous estimates[1] - The U.S. CPI inflation forecast for the upcoming quarters has been slightly lowered, with expected rates of 2.6% for Q2 2025[1] - The probability of a recession in the next year has decreased to 40% from 45%[1] Legislative Developments - The "Big Beautiful Bill" was passed in the House with a narrow margin of 215 to 214 votes, indicating potential fiscal challenges ahead[2] - The projected ten-year deficit is estimated at $2.505 trillion, down from a previous forecast of $2.69 trillion[2] - The bill includes tax cuts that may exacerbate concerns regarding U.S. fiscal sustainability, as revenue increases are expected to lag behind deficit increases[2] Market Reactions - Gold prices surged by 4.8% to $3,357 per ounce, driven by heightened market risk aversion following tariff threats from Trump[1] - The auction results for 20-year bonds in both the U.S. and Japan showed weak demand, contributing to rising long-term bond yields[1] - Moody's downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit rating has further fueled market concerns regarding liquidity and fiscal health[1]