宏观周报（5月19日-5月25 日）：攻守兼备、静待其变-20250525

Economic Growth - In April, China's GDP growth rate was estimated at approximately 5.6%, up from 5.4% in the first quarter[2] - The political bureau meeting emphasized accelerating existing policy tools to support the economy in Q2[2] Domestic Demand - Subway passenger volume increased by 2.45% year-on-year as of May 22, while domestic flight numbers averaged 13,010.3, up 3.92% year-on-year[2] - Retail sales of passenger cars from May 1-18 reached 932,000 units, a 9.3% increase year-on-year and a 15.4% increase month-on-month[2] External Demand - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1,342.4 in May, down 1.69% month-on-month and 29.0% year-on-year[2] - The China Export Container Freight Index averaged 1,106.2 in May, a 0.60% decrease from April and an 18.6% decrease year-on-year[2] Industrial Production - The operating rate of blast furnaces fell by 0.46 percentage points to 83.67% in the last week of May[2] - The production of hot-rolled coils decreased by 2.02% to 3.056 million tons[2] Price Trends - As of May 23, the average wholesale price of pork fell by 0.37%, while the price of 28 monitored vegetables dropped by 1.12%[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed mixed results, with coal prices down 4.48% and iron ore prices down 2.57%[2] Fiscal Policy - A total of 121 billion yuan in special government bonds were issued this week, bringing the cumulative issuance to 757 billion yuan[3] - Local special bonds have reached a 46.9% issuance progress as of May 24, with 251 billion yuan in new special refinancing bonds issued[3] Monetary Policy - The central bank's MLF net injection was 375 billion yuan, maintaining liquidity support for the third consecutive month[4] - The yield on 10-year government bonds rose to above 1.70%, closing at 1.7208%[4] International Market Dynamics - U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose above 4.5% due to concerns over budget deficits from proposed tax cuts[4] - The U.S. manufacturing and services PMI for May was reported at 52.3, indicating a slight improvement[4] Geopolitical Risks - Trump's potential tariffs on EU goods and threats to tech companies have raised concerns in the market[4] - The EU has implemented new sanctions against Russia, contributing to ongoing geopolitical tensions[5]