Xinda Securities·2025-05-25 08:23Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the steel industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Viewpoints - The overall profit from blast furnace steel production is considered satisfactory, and the profit recovery for general steel companies may accelerate [3]. - Despite facing supply-demand contradictions, the steel industry's overall profit is expected to decline, but with the implementation of various "stability growth" policies, steel demand is anticipated to remain stable or slightly increase [4]. - The report highlights that general steel companies, which are less affected by export tariffs, may see significant performance improvements due to the marginal recovery in demand from the real estate and infrastructure sectors [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector declined by 0.94% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific declines in special steel (0.28%), long products (0.36%), and flat products (1.21%) [3][11]. 2. Supply Data - As of May 23, the average daily pig iron production was 2.436 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.17 tons, but a year-on-year increase of 6.71 tons [28]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 91.3%, down 0.44 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace utilization increased by 2.93 percentage points to 59.5% [28]. 3. Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products was 9.046 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 92,000 tons, reflecting a 1.01% decline [37]. - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 95,000 tons, down 1.47 tons week-on-week, marking a 13.33% decrease [37]. 4. Inventory Data - Social inventory of five major steel products was 9.606 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 331,000 tons, or 3.33% [45]. - Factory inventory increased slightly to 4.38 million tons, up 0.99 tons week-on-week, but down 6.67% year-on-year [45]. 5. Price Trends - The comprehensive index for general steel was 3,452.2 yuan/ton, down 33.36 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 0.96% [51]. - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,652.6 yuan/ton, down 3.32 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 0.05% [51]. 6. Profitability - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 88 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decline of 14.56% [59]. - The average profit margin for 247 steel companies was 59.74%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points week-on-week [59]. 7. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leading companies with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and those with strong cost control [4].