国泰君安期货原油周度报告-20250525

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Current view: Temporarily hold off on trading, and maintain light long positions and positive spreads. The market is still expected to rebound, with the worst - case scenario being a sideways market. There is still a chance for a trending upward movement in the second half of the year, such as Brent rebounding above $75 per barrel [6]. - Logic: The current gold - oil ratio has soared continuously, and the cumulative decline has fully priced in a recession based on the relationship between 2024 crude oil demand and global economic fluctuations. There is a short - term risk of over - selling, so it is not the best short - allocation target. Even if prices fall, it is difficult to break previous lows. There are still uncertainties in OPEC+ actual production increases, so the negative impact may be limited. In the long term, there are several potential positive factors for oil prices, including a significant contraction in Iranian crude oil supply under US sanctions, low absolute inventory levels in major regions excluding floating storage, OPEC+ production cuts, and a slowdown in US shale oil supply growth. Once the macro sentiment stabilizes, there is a high probability of a trending rebound, more likely in the middle or second half of the year. China's large - scale stockpiling this round offsets the demand contraction in some regions, and the global apparent crude oil inventory shows a seasonal decline [6]. - Strategy: Hold light long positions. Once the recession expectation is revised and domestic demand negatives are fully released, consider bottom - fishing and increasing positions around mid - year. Hold positive spreads [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - The long - term US Treasury yield has fluctuated significantly, and the gold - oil ratio has declined from a high level. Overseas inflation continues to fall, and the "trade" relationship between China and the US has eased. The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing has rebounded [12][18][19]. 3.2 Supply - OPEC+ Core Members: There are various supply situations among different countries. For example, Saudi Arabia plans to increase production in June, with an increase in supply to the Asia - Pacific region and price adjustments in different regions. Russia has agreed to accelerate production recovery, but actual increases may be postponed to the fourth quarter of 2025. Kazakhstan's production in June is expected to increase compared to May. The potential lifting of sanctions on Iran may release nearly 1 million barrels per day of supply [7][8]. - Non - OPEC+ Members: US shale oil production growth is expected to slow significantly in 2025, and the number of drilling rigs has decreased. Venezuela's exports to some regions are expected to decline [7][8]. 3.3 Demand - Asia: China has a large - scale stockpiling this round. Saudi Arabia's crude oil supply to China reached a 14 - month high in June. Chinese refineries have new capacity, and some have adjusted their operations. India's refineries prefer Middle Eastern Murban crude oil, and the share of West African crude oil has decreased [9][10]. - America: US demand was strong at the beginning of the year, but the domestic crude oil consumption forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been lowered [10]. - Europe: European refinery processing volume increased in June, and the price of light crude oil in the European market was under pressure [10]. 3.4 Inventory - In the US, commercial inventories have stabilized, while Cushing region inventories have declined and are significantly lower than historical averages. In Europe, crude oil inventories have rebounded, while diesel and gasoline inventories have decreased. Chinese domestic refined oil profit margins have recovered [63][67][68]. 3.5 Price, Spread, and Position - North American basis has rebounded slightly, and the monthly spread has rebounded. SC is weaker than the external market, with a decline in the monthly spread and low valuation. Net long positions have rebounded [72][73][76].