锌产业链周度报告：有色及贵金属-20250525

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the zinc industry is weak, with a price range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The logic of marginal increase in mine supply is gradually being realized, refinery and port zinc concentrate inventories are relatively abundant, and after some refineries finish maintenance in May, the probability of resuming production is high. After the increase in zinc supply pressure, the surplus logic may become more apparent [5] - The consumption side has entered the traditional off - season, and the downstream restocking space is limited. After the easing of Sino - US tariff negotiations, there are still orders for rush export, but the intensity of some orders is not as strong as in previous rounds, and the boosting effect is limited. Terminal orders are gradually weakening, the production rhythm of downstream die - casting zinc and other sectors has slowed down, and the procurement space for spot is limited, mainly for rigid demand procurement, with weak spot trading during the week. Next week, approaching the Dragon Boat Festival, some enterprises have holiday plans, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly [5] - The logic that the increase in zinc ore supply is transmitted to the increase in smelting supply pressure still holds. After refineries finish maintenance, production increases, while the demand side enters the off - season, and the support for prices is limited. The profit - loss ratio of holding short positions is quite considerable. In terms of term spreads, there is also convergence pressure on the spreads of near - end contracts, and lending positions can be held. For domestic and foreign zinc prices, long domestic and short foreign positions can continue to be held [5] 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week's closing prices and changes: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,215 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.27%; the closing price of LmeS - zinc 3 was 2,712.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.50%. The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract in the night session yesterday was 22,280 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.29% [6] - Futures trading volume and open interest changes: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 127,189 lots, an increase of 9,000 lots compared with the previous week; the open interest was 114,069 lots, an increase of 19,723 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc 3 was 8,813 lots, an increase of 2,800 lots; the open interest was 212,114 lots, a decrease of 12,509 lots [6] - Spot - futures price difference changes: The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread was - 21.55 US dollars/ton last Friday, a decrease of 0.6 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week. The Shanghai 0 zinc spot premium was 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the Guangdong 0 zinc spot premium was 355 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the Tianjin 0 zinc spot premium was 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc ore inventory has rebounded to a high level, while zinc ingot visible inventory is low. Zinc concentrate inventory at refineries is abundant, at a high level in the same period of history, and the zinc ore arrival volume is at a medium level [8][9][36] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc mine profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term, at a historical medium level; smelting profits are stable, also at a historical medium level; galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable, at a medium - low level in the same period [10][11] 3.2.3 Operating Rate - The zinc concentrate operating rate has rebounded, at a medium level in the same period of history; the refined zinc monthly operating rate has rebounded, at a high level in the same period; the operating rates of downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc have declined, at a medium - low level in history [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspects 3.3.1 Spot - The spot premium remains stable at a high level. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight increase in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M still shows a contango structure [15][17] 3.3.2 Spread - The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a backwardation structure, and the far - end is relatively flat [19] 3.3.3 Inventory - Inventory shows a stabilizing trend at a low level, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio has declined from a high level. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term decrease and at a medium level in the same period of history. The LME off - warrant inventory is related to CASH - 3M. The bonded area inventory remains stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has declined [20][28][31] 3.3.4 Futures - The domestic open interest is at a relatively high level in the same period of history [31] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc mine production is at a medium - low level, and the recovery rate of domestic and imported ore processing fees has slowed down. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and refinery raw material inventory is abundant, at a high level in the same period of history [35][36] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting profits are marginally recovering, smelting output is marginally recovering, and refinery finished product inventory is at a medium - high level in the same period of history. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [37][40] 3.5 Zinc Demand 3.5.1 Downstream Processing Materials - Refined zinc consumption is basically the same as the same period last year. The downstream monthly operating rate has slightly recovered, mostly at a medium - low level in the same period of history [45][48] 3.5.2 Terminal - The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [59] 3.6 Overseas Factors - European electricity prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show certain fluctuations, which have an impact on the profitability of European zinc smelters [61]