铅产业链周度报告-20250525

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with prices adjusting within a narrow range [3][5] - The significant losses in the secondary lead sector have led to low operating rates, and the price of waste batteries has been suppressed by negative demand feedback [5] - Consumption is in the off - season, limiting the demand for lead ingots. The high inventory of finished products in battery enterprises and terminal dealers has pressured the downstream operating rate and the procurement of lead ingots [5] - Although the losses of secondary lead smelters have converged, the supply pressure is not sustainable due to the shortage of waste battery supply during the off - season. The downside space for lead prices is limited. In the medium - to - long term, buying at low levels can be considered, and attention should be paid to the potential mid - year sales rush in June and the peak consumption season in the third quarter [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Trading Volume, Open Interest) - Price: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract last week was 16,860 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.06%. The closing price of LmeS - lead 3 last week was 1,952.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.59% [6] - Spread: The LME lead cash - to - 3 - month spread decreased by 13.2 dollars/ton from the previous week. The near - month to continuous - first contract spread increased by 20 yuan/ton [6] - Inventory: SHFE lead warrant inventory decreased by 16,971 tons, SHFE total inventory decreased by 7,044 tons, social inventory decreased by 5,800 tons, and LME lead inventory increased by 45,175 tons [6] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract increased by 18,978 lots, and the open interest increased by 18,817 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - lead 3 increased by 3,379 lots, and the open interest decreased by 6,978 lots [6] 3.2 Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - Lead Concentrate: The import volume, domestic production, and inventory of lead concentrate are presented in historical data charts. The import and domestic processing fees of lead concentrate decreased, and the smelting profit also declined [24][25][6] - Primary Lead: The production and weekly operating rate of primary lead are shown in historical data charts, with relatively small marginal changes [26] - Secondary Lead: Previously, secondary lead suffered significant losses, with an average loss approaching 800 yuan/ton. Due to weak demand and losses, the price of waste batteries decreased, and the losses of secondary lead smelters converged. The operating rate remained at a low level [5][28] - Waste Battery: The price of waste batteries decreased significantly due to negative feedback from the secondary lead sector. The supply of waste batteries is expected to be tight again after the sell - off by recyclers [5] 3.3 Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Battery, Terminal) - Lead - Acid Battery: The industry has entered the consumption off - season. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has declined, and the inventory of finished products in enterprises and terminal dealers is difficult to deplete, which has pressured the procurement of lead ingots [5][32] - Terminal: The production of automobiles and motorcycles is presented in historical data charts. The actual consumption of lead is also shown in historical data [33][34]