能源化工液化石油气周度报告-20250525

Report Information - Report Title: Liquefied Petroleum Gas Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: May 25, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The futures market is oversold, and short - term support is strengthening [5] - The expectation of OPEC+ production increase from May 17 to May 23 pressured oil prices, weakening the cost side of PG, and the overall market was weak [5] - The overall demand support is insufficient, and the price is further pressured downwards. It is recommended to closely monitor the subsequent PDH device and logistics dynamics [5] Summary by Directory 1. Overview - From May 17 - 23, OPEC+ production increase expectation suppressed oil prices, weakening the PG cost side. As of May 23, the AFEI propane index MA5 dropped 2.13% to $541.05/ton; the US Gulf MB price MA5 dropped 2.26% to $388.47/ton; the CIF price of South China propane refrigerated cargo MA5 was $626/ton, down $5.4/ton or 0.86% from the previous average [5] - In terms of supply, domestic LPG production increased 1.09% month - on - month to 509,600 tons, mainly due to a 2.7% increase in civil gas production; propane import arrivals decreased 37.42% month - on - month to 375,800 tons; port inventory decreased 3.83% month - on - month to 3,094,300 tons (East China 1,443,300 tons / - 6.96%, South China 614,000 tons / + 4.6%) [5] - In terms of demand, the domestic propane dehydrogenation unit operating rate this week was 61.15%, up 3.17 percentage points month - on - month. Next week, the PDH units of Qingdao Jinneng Phase II and Ningbo Formosa Plastics are expected to resume operation, so the domestic PDH operating rate is expected to continue to rise [5] 2. Price & Spread - The report presents multiple price and spread charts, including LPG and propane futures and spot prices, term spreads, and regional basis prices, as well as historical data on regional quotes, premiums, and freight rates [8][11][13] 3. Supply 3.1 US Exports - Total exports decreased, exports to China increased slightly, and exports to Japan and South Korea decreased significantly [26] 3.2 Middle East Exports - Overall exports decreased with regional differentiation [32] 3.3 Imports in China, India, Japan, and South Korea - Imports in China and India increased, while those in Japan and South Korea decreased slightly [40] 3.4 Domestic LPG Production - Total production was 509,600 tons (+ 1.09%), and civil gas production was 207,000 tons (+ 2.7%) [45] 3.5 Domestic Propane Supply - This week, China's propane supply was 411,300 tons, a 35.48% month - on - month decrease. Domestic refinery commodity volume was 35,500 tons, a 4.05% decrease from last week. International ship arrivals were 375,800 tons, mainly in South China [49] 3.6 Domestic Inventory - Civil gas in East China and ports in South China saw inventory accumulation, while civil gas in South China and ports in East China saw inventory reduction. Propane in Shandong had a slight inventory increase [50] 4. Demand - The PDH operating rate was 61.15% (+ 3.17), and the MTBE operating rate was 55.35% (- 0.74) [53]