能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20250525

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly due to continuous macro - disturbances and the seasonal pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand. The supply - increasing and demand - decreasing trend remains unchanged fundamentally. After rainy weather in the producing areas, the expectation of increased supply is rising, and raw material pressure may gradually emerge. With no obvious improvement in terminal demand, the support for rubber prices is limited, coupled with the dominant negative macro - sentiment [67]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry News - Cambodia's latex exports in the first four months of 2025 decreased by 10.5% year - on - year to 76,467 tons, but export revenue increased by 18% to $148 million, and the average export cost was $1926 per ton, about $461 higher than the same period last year. The country's rubber is mainly exported to Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, and China [6]. - On May 21, 2025, the European Commission launched an anti - dumping investigation into new passenger and light - truck pneumatic rubber tires imported from China [6]. - In April 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 102 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. From January to April, the production increased by 3.7% year - on - year to 385.58 million pieces [7]. - In the first four months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 3.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, and the export value was 53.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. By quantity, the export volume reached 226.81 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.3% [7]. - In April 2025, the global light - vehicle sales reached 7.32 million, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The markets in China and the US showed strong year - on - year growth, while the Western European market continued to face challenges [8]. Price - This week, the domestic and foreign rubber markets first rose and then fell. The order of price changes is Tokyo RSS3 > Singapore TSR20 > NR > RU. On May 23, 2025, the closing price of RU2509 was 14,535 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 2.48%; the closing price of NR2509 was 12,470 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.50%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2509 was 169.80 cents/kg, a weekly decline of 0.99%; the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2509 was 320.00 yen/kg, a weekly increase of 1.59% [11][12]. Basis and Monthly Spread - On May 23, 2025, the basis of whole - milk - RU was - 85 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 19.05% and a year - on - year increase of 88.89%. The 09 - 01 monthly spread was - 785 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5.99% and a year - on - year increase of 32.03% [16]. Other Spreads - Spreads such as RU - NR, RU - JPX RSS3, and NR - SGX TSR20 have narrowed, while the value of the RU - BR spread has increased. For example, on May 23, 2025, the RU09 - NR09 spread was 2065 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.37% [17][18]. - The spreads of imported rubber such as Thai - mixed - RU, Malaysian - mixed - RU, 3L - RU, and African No. 10 rubber - RU have changed. For example, the Thai - mixed - RU spread was - 115 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 62.30% and a year - on - year increase of 86.23% [20]. - The spread between whole - milk and Thai - mixed rubber has converged significantly, while the spread between 3L and Thai - mixed rubber has slightly expanded. On May 23, 2025, the whole - milk - Thai - mixed spread was 30 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 85.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 57.14% [26]. Substitute Prices - This week, the decline of synthetic rubber was greater than that of RU, and the spread between synthetic rubber and RU has expanded. On May 23, 2025, the price of butadiene rubber in the mainstream Chinese market was 12,050 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.41% [31]. Capital Trends - On May 23, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU's main contract was 8.25, with a month - on - month increase of 12.49% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.80%. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR's main contract was 14.01, with a month - on - month increase of 182.43% and a year - on - year increase of 296.62%. The settled funds of RU's main contract were 4.788 billion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 9.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.74%. The settled funds of NR's main contract were 1.541 billion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 73.60% and a year - on - year increase of 57.02%. The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU is at a low level, and the settled funds are at a low level compared to the same period last year. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR is at a relatively high level, and the settled funds are at a high level compared to the same period last year [36][37]. Fundamental Data Supply - The weather in Thailand is generally normal this week, with a seasonal increase in rainfall in the northeast. Yunnan and Hainan in China are gradually entering the rainy season, which may affect rubber tapping [40][41]. - Due to increased rainfall in domestic and foreign producing areas, rubber tapping is disturbed, raw material output is scarce, and procurement prices are high. On May 23, 2025, the purchase price of cup - lump in Thailand's Songkhla Province was 53.95 baht/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.79% [42]. - The spread between Thai water and cup - lump has slightly expanded, and the spread between Hainan's latex for concentrated latex production and that for whole - milk production has expanded. On May 23, 2025, the Thai water - cup spread was 8.80 baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 9.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 55.67% [46][48]. - Processing profits have generally declined. On May 23, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 1178 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.27% and a year - on - year increase of 22.80% [49][50]. - In April 2025, China's natural rubber (including mixed and composite) imports decreased by 12% month - on - month and increased by 42% year - on - year. The imports of Thai standard and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber were at a high level [51]. Demand - The capacity utilization rate of tires is at a low level in recent years, and tire inventories continue to accumulate. On May 23, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was 62.09%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.21%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires was 73.74%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.93% [54][55]. - In April 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires weakened seasonally month - on - month but maintained a good year - on - year performance. The sales of heavy - duty trucks weakened month - on - month and increased slightly year - on - year. The sales of passenger cars weakened month - on - month and were at a high level year - on - year [57][58]. Inventory - This period's natural rubber inventory shows a downward trend, with both light - colored and dark - colored rubbers decreasing, and the decrease in dark - colored rubber being slightly larger. As of May 16, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.3425 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96%. The social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 818,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.51%. The social inventory of light - colored rubber was 524,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.10% [59][60]. Operation Suggestions - Rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to continuous macro - disturbances and the seasonal pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand [67].