投资策略周报：类平准基金有力支撑A股的平稳运行-20250525

Market Review - Global major stock indices mostly retreated this week, with the US, France, Japan, and South Korea leading the decline. The US assets faced a "triple hit" from stocks, bonds, and currencies. The yield on overseas long-term bonds mostly rose, with 30-year Japanese, US, and German bond yields increasing further, leading to heightened market risk aversion. The A-share market saw a volume contraction and rapid rotation of themes, with some funds cashing out from small-cap stocks while dividend stocks showed resilience. Among major A-share indices, the dividend index slightly rose, while the CSI 2000 and STAR 50 indices experienced the largest declines. In commodities, gold prices rose while energy prices fell, and domestic coking coal prices continued to hit new lows. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index fell below 100, leading to appreciation of non-US currencies [1][2]. Market Outlook - Class-balanced funds are expected to support the stable operation of A-shares. Recent global risk aversion has risen due to the fluctuating US tariff policies and rising overseas long-term bond yields, which may indirectly affect A-share sentiment. Meanwhile, China's regulatory authorities have repeatedly expressed their commitment to safeguarding stock market risk preferences. Subsequent inflows from social security, insurance, and pension funds are expected to continue, forming a virtuous cycle with A-shares showing stability and gradual growth. Structurally, since early April, the trading congestion in small-cap stocks has significantly increased, necessitating attention to the volatility effects brought by crowded positions. Key areas of focus in the market include: - Industry allocation should be balanced, with recommendations to pay attention to gold, new consumption, AI applications (software and hardware), and innovative pharmaceuticals. Thematic investments should focus on military industry, self-control, and mergers and acquisitions [2][4]. Analysis of Overseas Factors - The repeated fluctuations in US tariff policies and rising overseas long-term bond yields have led to a resurgence of global risk aversion. On May 23, Trump indicated that negotiations with the EU were "making no progress," suggesting a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, which caused significant declines in US and European stock markets. The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies remains a critical factor suppressing risk appetite. In the overseas bond market, Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, and the auction results for Japanese and US bonds were below expectations, raising investor concerns about the sustainability of debt in developed economies, leading to a general pullback in risk assets [4]. A-share Risk Premium and Market Dynamics - The risk premium of A-shares has returned to pre-tariff shock levels, indicating that further improvement in risk appetite requires support from fundamental expectations. This week, the risk premium of the CSI 300 index (1/PE - 10-year Chinese government bond yield) fell to 6.2%, reflecting that the impact of tariffs on market sentiment has largely been repaired. Future improvements in risk appetite will need verification from economic fundamentals or sustained macro policies. April's economic data showed strong export growth supported by re-exports, but domestic real estate sales and second-hand housing prices remained weak, with new credit also falling short of market expectations, indicating that insufficient domestic demand remains a primary constraint. Since the Central Political Bureau meeting on April 25, which proposed "four stability" goals, various ministries have introduced policies to stabilize employment and the economy, including interest rate cuts, stabilizing the real estate market, stock market, and foreign trade, as well as supporting the private economy. The implementation of these incremental policies is expected to boost domestic demand and improve consumer confidence, countering uncertainties from external environmental changes with the certainty of high-quality development [4]. Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - Since May, the inflow of incremental funds into the market has slowed marginally, with some previous concentrated small-cap funds experiencing profit-taking sentiment. As the risk premium of A-shares has recovered to pre-tariff shock levels, the marginal inflow of funds has slowed: the issuance scale of equity funds in May has decreased compared to April; the net subscription amount of ETFs in April was 183.5 billion yuan, while it has turned into a net redemption of 53.7 billion yuan in May; and the net buying amount of financing funds has also shown a slowdown in recent weeks. The A-share market has seen reduced trading volume, with rapid rotation of thematic concepts. The trading volume of the Wind Micro-cap Index and the CSI 2000 accounted for 2.7% and 33.3% of total A-share trading volume this week, respectively, reaching the 99.2% and 99.8% percentiles since 2021, indicating significant congestion in small-cap trading since the recovery trend began in early April, necessitating attention to the impact of profit-taking funds flowing out [4]. Regulatory Support and Market Stability - Regulatory voices have emphasized stabilizing the stock market and expectations, with class-balanced funds supporting the bottom range of the market. On May 19, the vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission stated at the 2025 Global Investor Conference that since the beginning of the year, social security, insurance, and pension funds have cumulatively net bought over 200 billion yuan of A-shares, reflecting a virtuous cycle of accelerated inflow of long-term funds and stable growth in the stock market. In terms of insurance capital entering the market, the Financial Regulatory Administration indicated that it will approve a third batch of 600 billion yuan for long-term investment reform trials, adding to the previous two batches, totaling 222 billion yuan. According to prior estimates, since 2022, the proportion of insurance funds holding A-shares has been on the rise, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.57 percentage points in the first quarter of this year. Looking ahead, the entry of "national teams," insurance funds, and social security into the market will strongly support the bottom range, aiding A-shares in maintaining stability and gradual growth [4].