镍：弱预期压制镍价，现实成本支撑，不锈钢：供需边际双弱，钢价震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel prices are expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short term, with short - term support from the ore end and concerns about the long - term market easing, and ample supply expectations from the smelting end [1] - Stainless steel prices may oscillate within a range, with negative feedback pressure transmitted to the supply side, resulting in a weakening of both supply and demand at the margin [2] Summary by Related Contents Nickel Fundamental Analysis - Ore end: High - grade nickel ore in Indonesia is tight, supporting the cost of the integrated pyrometallurgical process. The premium of 1.6% nickel ore has increased to $27 per wet ton, with the total price rising by 26% year - on - year to $54.3 per wet ton. However, the upward speed of the Indonesian ore end is expected to slow down, and the third quarter may be a key stage for quota release and premium adjustment. The market still anticipates quota release [1] - Smelting end: Due to the negative feedback of stainless steel production cuts on ferronickel, ferronickel has returned to inventory accumulation. The ferronickel inventory in mid - May was 29,554.5 tons, up 36% year - on - year and 4% month - on - month. The supply of intermediate products has increased marginally, which may drag down the valuation of refined nickel [1] - Inventory: LME nickel inventory has increased this week, and refined nickel still has the possibility of returning to inventory accumulation in the long term [1] Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Negative feedback has led to an increase in production cuts. The stainless steel production plan for May is 3.425 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2% and a month - on - month increase of 0%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate has declined to 5%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of domestic stainless steel imports is expected to decline to nearly - 29% in June, and the supply growth rate may be adjusted down to about 3.3% [2] - Demand: From January to April, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of stainless steel apparent demand plus exports was + 3.0% [2] - Inventory: Stainless steel social inventory has increased by 0.85% week - on - week, with cold - rolled stainless steel inventory decreasing by 5.39% and hot - rolled stainless steel inventory increasing by 10.59%. The inventory accumulation is mainly in the 400 series, while the 300 series inventory has decreased by 3.42% [6] Inventory Changes - Refined nickel: Chinese refined nickel social inventory has decreased by 840 tons to 42,088 tons. LME nickel inventory has increased by 3,414 tons to 198,636 tons [3] - Ferronickel: The ferronickel inventory at the end of mid - May was 29,554.5 tons, up 36% year - on - year and 4% month - on - month [4] - Stainless steel: Stainless steel social inventory is 1,117,668 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.85% [6] - Nickel ore: The nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports has increased by 252,700 wet tons to 7.3151 million wet tons, mainly from the Philippines [6] Market News - Policy adjustment: Indonesia has increased the resource tax rates for nickel ore, ferronickel, nickel pig iron, and nickel matte [7] - Production news: The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF has successfully produced ferronickel and entered the trial production stage. A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and its capacity has recovered to 70% - 80%. An Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue its shutdown for maintenance in June and July, which is expected to affect the production volume of 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly for the 300 series [7][8] - Export ban news: The Philippines is discussing a bill to ban nickel ore exports, and there are also rumors about a nickel ore export ban starting in June 2025, but the authenticity and start time are yet to be verified [8]