Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - This week, manganese - silicon futures prices rose due to South African manganese ore policies and union negotiation events but fell as Gemco Mine shipped its first batch of manganese ore since early 2024. Silicon - iron prices were volatile and weak due to the downward shift of raw material cost centers [3][42]. - The supply of silicon - iron decreased month - on - month, with significant production cuts in Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Gansu. The supply of manganese - silicon rebounded slightly month - on - month, and production in major producing areas was relatively stable [3][42]. - Silicon - iron inventory increased month - on - month, with obvious inventory accumulation in Inner Mongolia. Manganese - silicon inventory decreased month - on - ten - days, but Ningxia was still in the inventory accumulation state. The warehouse receipt inventory of both silicons declined from the high level [3][42]. - Blast furnace operation and hot metal production decreased month - on - month and may have peaked and declined. The seasonal performance of the demand side was better than last year [3][42]. - The cost center of silicon - iron continued to move down, while the cost center of manganese - silicon increased slightly, supporting the futures price of manganese - silicon. The cost side may loosen again after the arrival of low - cost manganese ore and Australian ore in June [3][42]. - Overall, the supply - demand pattern of both silicons has tightened marginally recently, and a tight balance may occur at the end of the second quarter. Attention should be paid to the price changes of raw materials, the production rhythm of steel mills, the subsequent shipment and arrival of global manganese ore, and the implementation of ore - end policies and strike events [4][42]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review and Price Performance 1.1 Futures and Spot Price Trends - Futures Market: This week, the silicon - iron 2507 contract was volatile and weak, closing at 5,512 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 192 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 732,879 lots and an open interest of 209,455 lots, a week - on - week change of - 18,731 lots. The manganese - silicon 2509 contract price rose and then fell, closing at 5,718 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 140 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 5495 lots and an open interest of 435,700 lots, a week - on - week change of 54,626 lots [2][9]. - Spot Market: This week, the spot prices of silicon - iron in major regions fluctuated. The quoted price of 75B silicon - iron in major producing areas was 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 100 - 0 yuan/ton. The quoted price range of silicon - manganese in major regions was 5530 - 5880 yuan/ton. Among them, the price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon - manganese was 5580 yuan/ton, and that of Guangxi 6517 silicon - manganese was 5530 yuan/ton [11]. 1.2 Spread Changes - Futures - Spot Spread: As of this week, the basis of the silicon - iron 2507 contract compared to the Inner Mongolia silicon - iron spot was - 112 yuan/ton, a change of 178 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis of the manganese - silicon 2509 contract compared to the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was - 18 yuan/ton, a change of 226 yuan/ton from the previous week [14][15]. - Inter - month Spread: As of this week, the spread between silicon - iron 2407 - 2508 was 62 yuan/ton, a change of - 4 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spread between manganese - silicon 2507 - 2508 was - 16 yuan/ton, a change of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week [16]. - Spread between the Two Silicons: As of this week, the spot silicon - iron - manganese - silicon spread in Inner Mongolia was - 300 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spread between silicon - iron 2507 - manganese - silicon 2507 was - 174 yuan/ton, a change of - 58 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the spread between silicon - iron 2507 - manganese - silicon 2509 was - 206 yuan/ton, a change of - 52 yuan/ton from the previous week [17]. 2. Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 2.1 Supply - This week, the output of silicon - iron was 88,900 tons, a month - on - month change of - 4600 tons, a change rate of - 4.9%. The weekly operating rate was 30.42%, a change of - 0.80 percentage points from the previous week. The output of manganese - silicon was 165,200 tons, a month - on - month change of 2500 tons, a change rate of 1.5%. The weekly operating rate was 34.18%, a change of 0.58 percentage points from the previous week [2][26]. 2.2 Demand - The actual output of downstream hot metal decreased month - on - month. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, their blast furnace operating rate this week was 91.32%, a change of - 0.44 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average hot metal output of blast furnaces was 2436,000 tons, a month - on - month change of - 11,700 tons [2][30]. 2.3 Inventory - As of May 23, the inventory of 60 silicon - iron sample enterprises in the country was 75,170 tons, a month - on - half - month change of 1400 tons. The inventory of 63 silicon - manganese sample enterprises in the country was 201,100 tons, a month - on - half - month change of - 6000 tons [3][32]. 2.4 Profit - This week, the futures profit of the two silicons weakened month - on - month, while the spot profit rebounded month - on - month. Taking Inner Mongolia as an example, the futures profit of the silicon - iron main contract decreased to 17.75 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 147.5 yuan/ton; the futures profit of the manganese - silicon main contract was - 397.41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 131 yuan/ton. The spot profit of silicon - iron was - 94.25 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 44.5 yuan/ton; the spot profit of manganese - silicon was - 415.41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 95 yuan/ton [34][35]. 2.5 Raw Material Prices - This week, the price of semi - coke, the main raw material cost of silicon - iron, decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 595 yuan/ton. The price of South African semi - carbonate manganese ore in northern ports rose to 34.5 yuan/dry ton degree, a month - on - month change of 0.5 yuan/dry ton degree. The market price of Gabonese ore in Tianjin Port was 37.5 yuan/dry ton degree, a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/dry ton degree. The quoted price of Australian lumps rose to 41.5 yuan/dry ton degree. The price of rich manganese slag fell to 960 yuan/ton, the price of metallurgical coke decreased to 1163.7 yuan/ton, and the price of Inner Mongolia chemical coke decreased by 55 yuan/ton month - on - month. The prices of manganese - silicon raw materials fluctuated, but the overall cost center increased, while the cost center of silicon - iron weakened relatively [39].
锰硅：锰矿消息扰动，锰硅冲高回落，硅铁：成本重心下移，硅铁震荡偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-05-25 10:14