焦煤焦炭：累库延续，震荡偏弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The absolute prices of coking coal and coke are hard to say to have reached the bottom. Although the valuation is at a relatively low level, there are still downward drivers. Affected by market sentiment, coking coal and coke will still be short - allocated varieties in the black market and are expected to be in a weak and volatile state [1][23] Summary by Related Catalogs Last Week's Market Review Futures Market - The coking coal main contract JM2509 opened at 850.5 yuan/ton last week, with the highest at 864.0 yuan/ton, the lowest at 801.0 yuan/ton, and closed at 801.5 yuan/ton, a change of - 48.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week's settlement price. It had a trading volume of 2,036,815.0 lots and an open interest of 521,877.0 lots. - The coke main contract J2509 opened at 1,442.5 yuan/ton, with the highest at 1,453.5 yuan/ton, the lowest at 1,376.0 yuan/ton, and closed at 1,383.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 55.0 yuan/ton compared with the previous week's settlement price. It had a trading volume of 106,856.0 lots and an open interest of 55,648.0 lots [4] Basis Analysis - The basis of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 133 yuan/ton. The basis of coke was 12 yuan/ton [4] Spread Analysis - The spread between the 2509 coke contract and the 2509 coking coal contract was 581.5 yuan/ton [4] Domestic Spot - S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu was priced at 1030 yuan/ton; S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 935 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton); S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 3) in Shaheyi was 978 yuan/ton [5] Port Inventory and Quotations Port Inventory - As of May 24, 2025, the total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 722.00 million tons; at Caofeidian Port was 565.00 million tons; at Jingtang Port was 857.30 million tons; and at Xingang of Guangzhou Port was 44.60 million tons [11] Port Quotations - The ex - warehouse price of Shanxi main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1400 yuan/ton, and the ex - warehouse prices of Australian main coking coal at Qingdao Port, Lianyungang Port, Rizhao Port, and Tianjin Port were 1305 yuan/ton, 1305 yuan/ton, 1190 yuan/ton, and 1295 yuan/ton respectively [11] Freight Rate Fluctuations - As of May 23, 2025, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index (CBCFI) was 717.21, the Panamax Freight Index (BPI) was 1,246.00, the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) was 1,900.00, the Supramax Freight Index (BSI) was 983.00, and the Handysize Freight Index (BHSI) was 472.00 [13] Coking Industry Coke Price Index - The price of quasi - first - grade coke in Lvliang was 1160 yuan/ton; in Tangshan was 1360 yuan/ton; and at Rizhao Port was 1260 yuan/ton [16] Coke Inventory - This week, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 685.5 million tons, and that of 230 independent coking plants was 67.06 million tons [19] Technical Analysis - The coking coal JM2509 contract closed down last week, with the lower support level at 750 yuan/ton and the upper resistance level at 900 yuan/ton. - The coke J2509 contract also closed down last week, with the lower support level at 1300 yuan/ton and the upper resistance level at 1600 yuan/ton [23] Views and Operation Suggestions - Views: The absolute prices of coking coal and coke are hard to say to have reached the bottom. The supply is loose, and the upstream coal mines are still accumulating inventory. As the downstream enters the off - season, the intensity of rigid - demand restocking weakens. - Operation Suggestions: Conduct range trading [23][24]