铁矿石：短期需求拐点出现，偏弱震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The downstream construction demand continues to decline on a month - on - month basis, and the apparent demand for major steel products has also weakened. The valuation of the black sector continues to oscillate weakly. Recently, the shipment volume of mainstream mines has increased slightly on a month - on - month basis. The iron - water production has reached an inflection point, but downstream construction is still at a relatively high level. Overall, the supply - demand fundamentals show signs of entering the off - season, with a lack of demand highlights. Coupled with the strengthened market expectation of increased iron ore supply in the second half of the year, it is difficult for the futures price to obtain continuous price support. In the short term, the iron ore price may continue to oscillate weakly [4][48]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review and Price Performance 1.1 Periodic and Spot Price Trends - Futures Market: This week, the price of the main iron ore contract I2509 oscillated downward, closing at 718.0 yuan/ton, with a position of 750,000 lots, a decrease of 6,700 lots [7]. - Spot Market: The spot price of imported iron ore at ports remained stable this week. Among them, the price of 64.5% Karara fines at Qingdao Port dropped 13 yuan/ton to 845 yuan/ton, and the price of 62.5% BRBF dropped 16 yuan/ton to 765 yuan/ton. For domestic iron ore, the price of 66% iron concentrate in Tangshan dropped 5 yuan/ton to 930 yuan/ton, while the price of 66% iron concentrate in Hanxing and 65% iron concentrate in Laiwu increased by 21 yuan/ton to 947 yuan/ton and 865 yuan/ton respectively. The Platts 62% index closed at 98.95 US dollars/dry ton this week, a week - on - week increase of 2.15 US dollars/dry ton [8]. 1.2 Spread Changes - Spot Variety Spread: This week, the price decline of low - grade ore at ports was relatively small, and the spread between medium - and low - grade ores narrowed [15]. - Periodic - Spot and Futures Inter - Month Spread: This week, the main iron ore contract 2509 was at a discount of 107.1 yuan/ton compared to the 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port, 3.1 yuan/ton less than the previous week. The spread between 2509 - 2601 was 35.5 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the spread between 2601 - 2605 was 55.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton from the previous week [20]. 2. Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 2.1 Supply - Foreign Ore Shipment and Domestic Arrival: As of May 16, the weekly shipment volume from Australia was 1.6489 billion tons, and that from Brazil was 751.1 million tons, a total of 2.4 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 250.1 million tons. The arrival volume at northern Chinese ports was 1.0578 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 203.6 million tons [25]. - Domestic Ore Capacity Utilization: As of May 23, the capacity utilization rate of 266 mines nationwide was 66.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.54% [26]. - Iron Ore Freight: The freight from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) was 18.86 US dollars, the same as the previous period, and the freight from Western Australia to Qingdao (BCI - C5) was 8.48 US dollars, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 US dollars. Recently, the shipment volume of mainstream mines has increased slightly on a month - on - month basis [27]. 2.2 Demand - As of May 23, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 91.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44%. The total weekly output of five major steel products was 8.7244 million tons, an increase of 40,900 tons from the previous week, mainly driven by the increase in rebar and wire rod production. The iron - water production has reached an inflection point, but downstream construction is still at a relatively high level [35][36]. 2.3 Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 139.8783 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7826 million tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 2.436 million tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons. In terms of components, Australian ore decreased by 1.074 million tons to 59.1268 million tons, Brazilian ore decreased by 693,900 tons to 52.3989 million tons, and trade ore decreased by 139,700 tons to 94.5341 million tons [39]. 2.4 Steel Mill Profits - With the appearance of the iron - water production inflection point, the profit situation of steel mills has improved with the continuous decline in coking coal and coke prices. In terms of futures profits, as of May 23, the futures profit of the rebar 2510 contract was 123.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.74 yuan/ton from last week; the futures profit of the hot - rolled coil 2510 contract was 216.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.74 yuan/ton from last week. In terms of spot profits, as of May 23, the spot profit of rebar was 71.30 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.17 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot profit of hot - rolled coil was 101.30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.83 yuan/ton from the previous week [42]. 2.5 Technical Analysis - This week, the price of the main iron ore contract I2509 oscillated downward, closing at 718.0 yuan/ton. The short - term upper resistance level is 802 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 640 yuan/ton [46].