花生：震荡行情

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The peanut market is in a volatile situation. The spot price has risen, and the futures market is mainly fluctuating. After a rapid rise in the producing - area market, the short - term market has entered a stage of stalemate, consolidation, and a slight correction. The futures market is expected to have limited downward space due to the relatively strong spot situation [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Spot Market: As of May 22, 2025, the average price of national general peanuts was 8500 yuan/ton, up 2.41% from the previous week. The spot market showed a volatile upward trend, with the tight supply situation supporting the price [1]. - Futures Market: In the week of May 23, the peanut futures rose. The highest price of the main contract (PK2510) was 8428 yuan/ton, the lowest was 8216 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 8308 yuan/ton (compared with 8232 yuan/ton in the previous week) [1]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Producing Areas: After a rapid rise, the short - term market is in a stage of stalemate, consolidation, and a slight correction. Some producing - area inventories need to be cleared for profit, and the market's willingness to buy at high prices has decreased. The terminal sales are sluggish, and the market inventory needs further consumption. The oil - mill acquisitions are gradually ending [2]. - Futures Market: It is mainly volatile. The normal - temperature inventory of traders and screening plants in the core producing areas needs to be cleared for cash. The inventory in some producing areas has been transferred to cold storage, and the shutdown rate of screening plants has increased. The market - circulating goods show a concentrated trend. After the price on the disk reached a high, it declined due to rainfall in the North China producing area and the end of oil - mill stocking. The downward space of the disk is expected to be limited because of the strong spot situation [2]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis of Henan Baisha general peanuts has strengthened, while the basis of Sudan refined peanuts has weakened [6]. - Spread: The 11 - 1 spread has weakened (data update stopped), and the 10 - 11 spread is also presented in the report [7]. 3.4 Price Data - The price of Baisha peanuts in Zhumadian, Henan, increased by about 300 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [11]. - The arrival volume of 6 oil - peanut markets was about 0.53 million tons, down 9.09% from the previous week and 1.96% from the same period last year. The arrival volume of 14 commercial - peanut markets was about 0.42 million tons, down 21.43% from the previous week and up 0.59% from the same period last year. The arrival volume of 20 domestic markets was about 0.95 million tons, down 15.05% from the previous week and 0.84% from the same period last year [12]. 3.5 Supply The arrival volumes of oil - peanut, commercial - peanut, and domestic markets have all declined [16][17][23]. 3.6 Demand - The arrival volume of sample oil mills was about 3.27 million tons, up 22.93% from the previous week but down 44% from the same period last year [25]. - The mainstream quotation of domestic first - grade peanut oil is 14500 - 15500 yuan/ton, with most oil - mill quotations rising, and there is some bargaining space in actual transactions [25]. - The mainstream quotation of peanut meal is 3100 - 3300 yuan/ton. Most oil mills have raised the price affected by soybean meal, but the downstream feed mills have weak purchasing willingness [25]. - The theoretical profit of peanut processing in some domestic oil mills this week was - 35.64 yuan/ton, up 8.62 yuan/ton from the previous week [25]. - The comprehensive startup rate of sample enterprises was 15.02%, up 1.75% from the previous week but down 7.98% from the same period last year [25]. - The peanut - pressing volume of sample oil mills was about 2.66 million tons, up 13.16% from the previous week but down 34.7% from the same period last year [25]. 3.7 Inventory The peanut inventory in oil mills has increased, while the peanut - oil inventory in oil mills has remained stable [27].