生猪：结构转换，关注去库持续性

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market Review (5.19 - 5.25): In the spot market, pig prices were weak. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 43 yuan/kg (last week: 44.1 yuan/kg), and the price of live pigs in Henan was 14.3 yuan/kg (last week: 14.85 yuan/kg). The price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1631 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). On the supply side, the willingness of individual farmers to sell increased, and group farms also increased their sales. On the demand side, recent demand was weak, and slaughter volume was slightly lower than expected, but the demand for secondary fattening increased in the second half of the week. The average slaughter weight nationwide was 126.5KG (last week: 126.42KG), a week-on-week increase of 0.06%. In the futures market, pig futures prices were also weak. The highest price of the LH2509 contract was 13,730 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,475 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,515 yuan/ton (last week: 13,660 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2509 contract was 785 yuan/ton (last week: 1,190 yuan/ton) [1][2]. - Market Outlook (5.26 - 6.1): In the spot market, pig prices will fluctuate weakly. During the off - season, the adjustment of group farm sales has a significant impact on prices. In early May, group farms reduced sales to support prices, but in the middle and late May, downstream consumption was weak, slaughter volume remained low, and enterprises increased sales, causing prices to drop rapidly. There is still room for inventory accumulation, but the incremental driving force for inventory accumulation is limited. The speculative demand in May still has support, but the spot pressure is gradually increasing. In the futures market, the price of the LH2509 contract closed at 13,515 yuan/ton on May 23. There are signs of passive pig retention, and the central price of the futures market will continue to decline. If secondary fattening fails to form a concentrated entry situation, the inventory reduction stage may be long, and the price difference structure will switch to a reverse spread pattern. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Spot Market: The prices of piglets, live pigs, and binary sows were provided, along with changes in supply and demand. The average slaughter weight increased slightly week - on - week [1]. - Futures Market: The price range, closing price, and basis of the LH2509 contract were given, showing a weak trend [2]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Spot Market: The impact of group farm sales adjustment on prices, supply and demand conditions, and inventory accumulation were analyzed, indicating a weak price trend [3]. - Futures Market: The price of the LH2509 contract, the situation of passive pig retention, the possible price difference structure change, and the short - term support and pressure levels were discussed [4]. 3.3 Other Data - Basis and Month - to - Month Difference: The basis was 785 yuan/ton, and the LH2507 - LH2509 month - to - month difference was - 310 yuan/ton [9]. - Supply: The average slaughter weight was 126.5KG. In March, pork production was 508 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39%. In April, pork imports were 80,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.8% [12].