房地产行业周度观点更新：三个领域具备稳定现金流-20250525

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [16]. Core Insights - The current phase shows a gradual decline in the development sector's industry prosperity, with weak expectations for policy easing. The promotion of existing housing sales policies is not fully realized, and overall transaction value remains unclear. Sectors with stable cash flow and potential high dividends are more defensive and have long-term allocation value. The sectors are ranked by cash flow certainty as follows: 1) undervalued central state-owned enterprise property leaders with excess cash and stable profit and cash flow growth, 2) comprehensive real estate companies with quality self-holding assets, such as China Resources Land, and 3) strong real estate companies in core areas [3][13]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 1.33% this week, with an excess return of -1.15% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 23rd out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index is down 6.79%, with an excess return of -5.45%, ranking 30th out of 32 [10][19]. Policy Updates - The State Council introduced measures to promote urban renewal, while Shanghai released a special plan to boost consumption. The central government aims to support urban renewal projects and innovate financing models. Locally, Shanghai is accelerating the development of a new real estate model and increasing the supply of affordable rental housing [11][21]. Sales Data - In sample cities, new and second-hand housing transactions are fluctuating at low levels. The new housing transaction area in 37 cities increased by 3.1% year-on-year, while second-hand housing transactions rose by 10.5% year-on-year. Year-to-date, new housing transactions are up 1.5%, and second-hand transactions are up 25.3% [12][23]. Focus Areas for Investment - The report highlights three areas with stable cash flow: 1) central state-owned enterprise property leaders maintaining slight growth in net profit and cash flow, 2) comprehensive real estate companies with quality self-holding assets, and 3) strong real estate companies in core regions that can still generate stable profits despite industry downturns [9][13].