利率周度策略：定量广普降息对债市的影响：政策利率和贷款利率或不一样-20250525

Group 1 - The report indicates that since 2022, the decline in deposit and loan rates has outpaced the decline in government bond rates and policy rates, suggesting that the bond market has not fully priced in the expectations of interest rate cuts [4][9][10] - The analysis emphasizes that using loan rates as a benchmark provides a more accurate reflection of the bond market's pricing, indicating that there is still room for bond rates to decline further [10][16][21] - The report suggests that the current yield spread between long-term bonds and loans is at a historically low level, indicating that purchasing long-term bonds is a more cost-effective choice compared to mortgage loans [21][24] Group 2 - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cuts have led to a compression of yield spreads, and the market needs to identify the next strategic rotation direction [24][26] - It notes that the capital gains opportunity in the bond market may re-emerge in the third quarter, contingent on further interest rate cuts [26][27] - The report concludes that the bond market's current pricing is reasonable and even conservative when using loan rates as a benchmark, suggesting potential for further declines in bond rates [27][28]