国泰君安期货金银周报-20250525

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the continued rise of the gold - silver ratio. Gold is relatively strong, and silver is neutral. The price ranges are 760 - 800 yuan/gram for gold and 7900 - 8350 yuan/kilogram for silver. [3] - Although gold has long - term upward potential, the current driving factors are weaker than the previous tariff contradictions. Gold is likely to show a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, but it is difficult to break through the previous high. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Review - Price and Price Change: London gold rose 5.02%, and London silver rose 2.99%. The gold - silver ratio increased from 99.6 to 101.4. The 10 - year TIPS rose to 2.18%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.51% (2 - year 4%), and the US dollar index was 99.1. [3] - Futures Trading and Position Changes: There were changes in trading volume and positions of various gold and silver futures contracts, such as the trading volume of沪银2506 increasing by 65,240 hands and the position increasing by 29,805 hands. [4] - Comex and ETF Position Changes: Comex silver and gold non - commercial net long positions, as well as SLV and SPDR ETF positions, all had corresponding changes. For example, Comex silver non - commercial net long positions increased by 45,645 hands. [4] - Inventory Changes: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.13 million ounces to 38.79 million ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 5.47 million ounces to 569.69 million ounces. [36][38] - Domestic Futures - Spot Price Difference Changes: The gold and silver futures - spot price differences were at the lower end of the historical range. For example, the gold futures - spot price difference was - 4.38 yuan/gram. [16][19] - Domestic Inter - month Price Difference Changes: The gold and silver inter - month price differences were also at the lower end of the historical range. For example, the gold inter - month price difference was 6.02 yuan/gram. [23][27] - Internal and External Price Difference Changes: There were changes in the internal and external price differences of gold and silver, such as the silver T + D to London silver price difference changing from - 385 to - 501. [4] - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index fell 1.84%, and other exchange rates also had corresponding changes. [4] 3.2 Overseas Futures - Spot Price Difference - Gold: This week, the London spot - COMEX gold主力 price difference fell to - 0.181 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力 price difference was - 6.7 dollars/ounce. [9] - Silver: This week, the London spot - COMEX silver主力 price difference widened to - 0.26 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力 price difference was - 0.43 dollars/ounce. [12] 3.3 Domestic Futures - Spot Price Difference - Gold: This week, the gold futures - spot price difference was - 4.38 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range. [16] - Silver: This week, the silver futures - spot price difference was - 19 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range. [19] 3.4 Inter - month Price Difference - Gold: This week, the gold inter - month price difference was 6.02 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range. [23] - Silver: This week, the silver inter - month price difference was 65 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range. [27] 3.5 Cross - month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - There were calculations of cross - month positive arbitrage delivery costs for buying TD and selling Shanghai gold, buying Shanghai gold 12 - month and selling 6 - month, buying TD and selling Shanghai silver, and buying Shanghai silver 12 - month and selling 6 - month. [30][31][32][33] 3.6 Shanghai Gold Exchange Deferred Fee Payment Direction This week, the gold and silver deferred fees on the Shanghai Gold Exchange were mainly paid by longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power. [34] 3.7 Gold Core Drivers - Gold and Real Interest Rate: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rate recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline. [60] - Inflation and Retail Sales Performance: There were data on inflation and retail sales performance, such as the US PCE and core PCE year - on - year changes. [65] - Non - farm Employment Performance: There were data on non - farm employment, such as new non - farm employment numbers and unemployment rates. [67][68][69] - Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions: There were related analyses of the industrial manufacturing cycle and financial conditions. [71] - Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index: There were discussions on these two indices. [73] - Fed Rate Cut Probability: There were calculations and analyses of the Fed rate cut probability. [75]