国泰君安期货锡周报-20250525

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The tin market maintains a pattern of strong current situation and weak future expectations, with tin prices showing a narrow - range oscillation. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities at high prices based on the logic of weakening macro - demand and releasing fundamental supply as the year - end approaches [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) 3.1.1 Spot - The weekly tin price remained oscillating with a slightly higher peak. The LME 0 - 3 was at a discount of $1135 per ton, and the domestic spot premium dropped to 700 yuan per ton. Overseas premiums were basically flat compared to last week, with the Baltimore premium slightly narrowing [5][9][14]. 3.1.2 Spread - The tin monthly structure changed from contango to back this week [17]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The global tin inventory increased by 304 tons this week, the domestic social inventory increased by 374 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 43 tons. The LME inventory decreased by 70 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants rose to 14.26% [22][26]. 3.1.4 Capital - As of this Friday, the settled funds for Shanghai tin were 1390.82 million yuan, and the capital flow in the past 10 days was in an outflow direction [32]. 3.1.5 Transaction and Position - The trading volume and position of Shanghai tin slightly declined this week, while the position volume slightly increased. The trading volume of LME tin continued to decline significantly from the previous high [34][40]. 3.1.6 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - The position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin slightly declined this week [46]. 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 3.2.1 Tin Ore - In March 2025, the output of tin concentrates was 6344 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.74%. In April 2025, the import was 9861 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.22%, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 47.98%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan dropped to 12000 yuan per ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan dropped to 8800 yuan per ton. The import profit and loss level of tin ore slightly declined [50][51]. 3.2.2 Smelting - In April 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.13%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces slightly declined to 56.44% [53][55]. 3.2.3 Import - In April 2025, the domestic tin ingot imports were 1128 tons, exports were 1637 tons, with a net export of 509 tons. The tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 1028 tons. The latest import profit and loss was - 9130 yuan per ton [62]. 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, Terminal) 3.3.1 Consumption - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 14691 tons, and the actual consumption was 16340 tons [66]. 3.3.2 Tin Materials - The downstream processing fee slightly declined this week. The operating rate of solder enterprises in April slightly decreased. The production and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises slightly increased in March [68]. 3.3.3 Terminal Consumption - In April 2025, the terminal production generally declined both month - on - month and year - on - year, but the production of integrated circuits, air conditioners, and washing machines was still at the highest level over the years. Traditional 3C consumption such as smartphones and electronic computers performed averagely. The consumption of home appliances and new energy also declined both month - on - month and year - on - year. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, showing the same trend as the tin price [76][79][85].