GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-05-25 12:09Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal sector is experiencing a turning point after a prolonged downturn, with signs of recovery emerging as coal prices stabilize [2][3] - The report highlights five key factors supporting the stabilization of coal prices, including reduced supply due to mine closures and increased demand from power plants as summer approaches [6][12] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index rose to 3,276.27 points, up 0.98%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.15 percentage points [2][76] - After a significant drop in coal prices, the market is showing signs of recovery, with a cumulative increase of 4.10% in the CITIC Coal Index over the past three weeks [2] Key Areas of Analysis - Thermal Coal: Prices have stabilized around 620 CNY/ton, with a slight weekly decrease of 9 CNY/ton. Supply remains stable, and demand is gradually improving as power plants increase consumption [6][32] - Coking Coal: The market remains weak, with prices for main coking coal types showing a downward trend. The report notes that supply has contracted slightly due to mine closures, but demand remains cautious [6][51] - Coke: Profit margins for coke producers have shrunk, but production levels are stable. The report indicates that demand is primarily driven by essential needs [6][57] Investment Strategy - The report recommends several key stocks in the coal sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Xinji Energy, all rated as "Buy" [7][8] - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the coal sector, particularly for companies with strong fundamentals and those positioned to benefit from market changes [8] Industry Insights - The report notes that the coal industry is expected to maintain its central role in China's energy system, with limited new supply expected in the coming years [6][33] - It highlights the importance of monitoring steel production and demand, as these factors significantly influence coking coal prices [6][52]