国泰君安期货能源化工：玻璃纯碱周度报告-20250525

Report Information - Report Title: Glass and Soda Ash Weekly Report - Report Date: May 25, 2025 - Analyst: Zhang Chi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Core Views - Glass: Short - term stop - falling, medium - term oscillatory market. The short - term supply shows no significant reduction and slight复产 occurs. The demand in main sales areas and Shahe is stable, but Hubei's trading is weak. Bulls focus on policy support and low prices, while bears worry about the poor real - estate market and high inventory [6]. - Soda Ash: Short - term oscillation, still under pressure in the trend. The glass market pressure restricts soda ash price increase. High production and inventory are the core issues. Although there is export support and low - valuation factors, the industry needs the glass industry to improve [7]. Summary by Directory Glass: Supply and Downstream Start - up - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 7060 tons/day [10]. - Ignited production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 6410 tons/day [11]. - Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 12400 tons/day, with some planned for 2025 [13]. - Potential复产 production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 10430 tons, mainly concentrated in South and Southwest China [15]. - Potential cold - repaired production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 7150 tons/day [17]. - The glass industry's production reduction space in the first half of the year is expected to be limited, with the current in - production capacity at about 157,000 tons/day [19][20]. Glass: Price and Profit - Recent transactions showed a decline and then partial recovery, with overall price cuts. Shahe's price is around 1160 - 1180 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), Hubei's is 1060 - 1140 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton), and East China's is 1320 - 1420 yuan/ton [23][26][27]. - Futures prices fell, basis strengthened, and monthly spreads remained stable. The profit for coal - fired units is 84 yuan/ton, for natural - gas - fired units is - 160 yuan/ton, and for petroleum - coke - fired units is - 90 yuan/ton [28][31][34]. Glass: Inventory and Downstream Start - up - East and South China's main sales areas had stable transactions, North China's improved, and Hubei's was still weak with a slight increase in inventory. Some main sales area manufacturers achieved supply - demand balance, Hebei reduced inventory, and Hubei increased inventory [38][40]. - The regional spread between Central China and Jiangsu - Zhejiang expanded, which is beneficial for Hubei to reduce inventory [43]. Photovoltaic Glass: Price, Profit, Capacity, and Inventory - Prices were stable, but recent order follow - up decreased, and local inventory increased slightly. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 13 - 13.5 yuan/square meter (down 1.85% month - on - month), and 3.2mm coated is 21 - 21.5 yuan/square meter (down 1.16% month - on - month) [50][52]. - As the market weakens, the复产 progress may slow down. The actual capacity as of the end of May is about 100,000 tons/day, and the sample inventory days are about 28.49 days (up 0.93% month - on - month) [53][54][59]. Soda Ash: Supply and Maintenance - Short - term spot prices changed little, but there is a strong expectation of future maintenance. The current capacity utilization rate is 78.6% (down from 80.2% last week), and the weekly heavy - soda production is 360,000 tons/week [63][65][68]. - The inventory is about 1.6768 million tons, with 844,000 tons of light soda ash and 832,800 tons of heavy soda ash [71][73]. Soda Ash: Price and Profit - The nominal price in Shahe and Hubei is about 1290 - 1350 yuan/ton. Some regions' traders slightly lowered quotes, and most regions remained unchanged [79][82]. - Short - term basis changed little, with narrow - range fluctuations in spot and futures. The current market should note that the soda ash monthly spread is close to the normal structure and may turn into a contango structure [85][88]. - The profit for the East China (excluding Shandong) dual - alkali method is 268 yuan/ton, and for the North China ammonia - alkali method is 65 yuan/ton [89].