美豆周度报告-20250525

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that due to a bumper harvest in South America, there is no basis for a bull market. However, cost support reduces the probability of a significant decline. The market is expected to remain in a volatile range between 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - This week, US soybean prices fluctuated within a narrow range [9]. - US soybean meal prices oscillated slightly higher [13]. - US soybean oil prices oscillated slightly lower, with the exemption of small - scale refineries from biodiesel blending obligations continuing to exert negative pressure [14]. - The spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports declined slightly [16]. - The procurement price at farms in Iowa remained basically stable [18]. - The spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa increased slightly [20]. - The spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, strengthened slightly [22]. - The spot price of soybeans in Brazil was stable with a slight increase [24]. - The ratio of US soybeans to corn rose and then fell, and its current seasonal trend is similar to that in 2023 [26]. 3.2 Supply Factors - The drought rate in US soybean - producing areas is 47%, down from 51% last week [29]. - The temperature in central US is relatively low, while that in the west is relatively warm [31]. - Precipitation in the south - central region is abundant, while that in the mid - west and northern regions is slightly scarce [33]. - Brazil has entered the dry season, with most regions experiencing scarce precipitation [36]. - Precipitation in Buenos Aires, Argentina, remains abundant, which is unfavorable for the harvesting work [38]. - The US soybean planting progress is 66%, up from 48% last week, higher than expected, and higher than the same period last year and the five - year average [41]. - The US corn planting progress is 78%, up from 62% last week, faster than last year and the five - year average [43]. 3.3 Demand Factors - The US soybean crushing profit is $1.94 per bushel, up from $1.78 per bushel last week [46]. - The weekly export volume of US soybeans is 250,000 tons, down from 429,900 tons last week [48]. - The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume is 217,800 tons, down from 439,500 tons last week [50]. - The weekly net sales volume is 307,900 tons, up from 282,400 tons last week [52]. - The sales volume of US soybeans for the next year is 15,000 tons, down from 490,000 tons last week [54]. - The quantity of soybeans shipped to China last week is 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [56]. 3.4 Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.378, indicating a basically neutral state [59]. - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [61][63]. - In terms of CFTC positions, the net long position of soybeans is 43,000 lots, down from 66,000 lots last week [68]. - The net long position of soybean oil is 64,000 lots, down from 70,000 lots last week [70]. - The net short position of soybean meal is 91,000 lots, up from 84,000 lots last week [72].