A股投资策略周报：“央行购金”框架：从跟踪、驱动到空间，看中长期“金价贡献”-20250525

Group 1 - The report anticipates a new round of Juglar cycle starting as early as Q3 2025, with a focus on technology, while maintaining a view of increasing volatility in global equity markets until then [1][12][16] - The report highlights that the domestic economic drivers are expected to rely significantly on government departments, with a noted decrease in the marginal effectiveness of the "two new" policies [1][12] - The report indicates that the U.S. economy may face "stagflation" risks, which could negatively impact global trade and market sentiment [1][13] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that central bank gold purchases are becoming a long-term demand trend, with a significant increase in their contribution to gold price dynamics [2][23] - It identifies the top five countries contributing to gold reserve increases as Russia, China, India, Turkey, and Poland, with a notable acceleration in gold purchases since 2022 [2][33] - The report suggests that the demand for gold from central banks is expected to continue rising due to geopolitical uncertainties and the weakening of the U.S. dollar's credit [3][50] Group 3 - The report outlines three main trading strategies: focusing on gold and gold stocks due to potential undervaluation, investing in innovative pharmaceuticals, and capitalizing on structural opportunities in the technology sector [4][65] - It highlights that the domestic fiscal stimulus is expected to support sectors such as infrastructure and service consumption, which are seen as growth-oriented assets [4][65] - The report notes that the A-share market is anticipated to have structural opportunities driven by AI industry logic, particularly in sectors with low penetration rates [4][65]